Economic Snapshot for the CIS Countries
January 14, 2020
Accelerating activity in Russia, propped up by looser monetary policy and fiscal stimulus measures, is set to propel regional growth this year. Growth is also seen picking up in Belarus, while largely steady momentum in Kazakhstan and Ukraine should further cement overall growth in CIS Plus. That said, a volatile external environment remains a key risk to the outlook.
CIS Countries Monetary & Financial Sector News
Regional inflation declined for the fifth consecutive month in December, coming in at a 17-month low of 3.7% (November: 4.1%). The moderation was largely driven by another fall in Russia, where inflation dropped to a 13-month low, and in Ukraine, where it slowed to the lowest level since March 2014. Price pressures remained mostly stable across the rest of the region.
Russia’s Central Bank brought its key policy rate down to a six-year low in December amid slowing inflation and frail activity growth. Furthermore, policymakers in Ukraine chopped the key interest rate for the fifth time in 2019 in the same month, although the monetary policy stance remained contractionary. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s Central Bank stayed put in December.
The region’s major currencies gained ground against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks. The Russian ruble hit a year-and-a-half high against the greenback at the beginning of January, while Ukraine’s hryvnia soared to four-year high at the end of 2019, supported by robust demand for government debt. Similarly, the Kazak tenge posted moderate gains against the U.S. dollar.
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CIS Countries Economic News
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Russia: Industrial production picks up pace in December
January 23, 2020
Industrial output rose 2.1% year-on-year in December, accelerating from November’s meagre 0.3% increase which had marked the weakest result since December 2017.
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Russia: Consumer confidence remains firmly entrenched in negative territory in Q4
January 17, 2020
The fourth-quarter consumer confidence index published by the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) on 17 January was stable at the third quarter’s minus 13 points.
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Kazakhstan: Industrial sector accelerates in December
January 15, 2020
Industrial production growth accelerated to 6.4% on an annual basis in December, from 4.8% in November.
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Ukraine: Ukraine nears new IMF deal, boding well for the economic outlook
January 13, 2020
On 7 December, Ukraine and the IMF announced a three-year USD 5.5 billion arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), which, if approved by the lender’s Executive Board, would represent the third support package by the Fund since the 2014 recession.
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Russia: Inflation falls to 17-month low in December
January 10, 2020
In December, consumer prices rose 0.4% over the previous month, up slightly from November’s 0.3% climb.
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