CIS Countries Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for the CIS Countries

February 12, 2020

Economic activity in CIS Countries is set to propel regional growth in 2020

Regional growth in is seen strengthening this year, chiefly thanks to higher fiscal stimulus and continued monetary policy easing in Russia which should shore up domestic demand in the regional giant. Activity should also quicken in Azerbaijan and Belarus, and remain robust in Kazakhstan and Ukraine. A volatile external environment remains a major risk to the outlook.

 

 

CIS Countries Monetary & Financial Sector News

Regional inflation fell to a 17-month low of 3.7% in December (November: 4.1%), mostly driven by swiftly retreating inflationary pressures in Russia, where inflation dropped to a 13-month low, and Ukraine, where it slowed to the lowest level  since March 2014. The dDisinflationary trend likely continued in January, with inflation  in Russia falling for the tenth 10th  consecutive month  running.

Russia’s Central Bank chopped the key policy rate to an over six-year low in February amid frail growth and falling inflation. In a similar fashion, policymakers in Azerbaijan a Ukraine trimmed key interest rates as price pressures continued to retreat. Meanwhile, central banks in Georgia and Kazakhstan stayed put at the outset of the year.

The region’s major currencies weakened slightly against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks. Plummeting global oil prices and coronavirus fears weighed on the Russian ruble while Ukraine’s hryvnia retreated fell  slightly after rising to a near three-year highs at the end of 2019. That said, the Kazak tenge continued to strengthen against the U.S. dollar at the outset of 2020. 

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