Economic Snapshot for the CIS Countries
March 10, 2020
Economic activity in CIS Countries is expected to strengthen in 2020
Growth in CIS Plus is expected to strengthen this year, largely on the back of studier domestic demand in Russia amid higher public spending and monetary policy easing. That said, the region’s other key economies—namely, Kazakhstan and Ukraine—are set to lose some traction. Furthermore, the full-impact of the global coronavirus outbreak threaten to restrain the regional upturn
CIS Countries Monetary & Financial Sector News
Regional inflation fell to a three-year low of 3.2% in January (December: 3.7%), marking the eighth consecutive month of moderation. This was once again chiefly driven by falling inflation in Russia, where it dipped to a 19-month low, and Ukraine, where it slumped to the lowest reading since February 2014. Price pressures intensified in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, however.
In their most recent meetings, central banks in Belarus, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine cut their key policy rates in response to moderating inflation and as headwinds to GDP growth intensified amid the coronavirus fallout. In contrast, Kyrgyzstan’s Bank hiked its key policy rate amid rising inflation, while policymakers in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan stayed put in February.
The region’s most prominent currency—the Russian ruble—depreciated markedly against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks amid plummeting global oil prices and a weakening growth outlook due to the coronavirus fallout. Notably, however, the Kazak tenge and Ukrainian hryvnia largely stood their ground over the last month, in contrast to the faltering Belarusian ruble..
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CIS Countries Economic News
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Ukraine: IMF deals draws near amid rising risks of recession
April 3, 2020
After months of foot-dragging, on 30–31 March the government successfully fast-tracked both the banking law and the land reform through Parliament.
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Kazakhstan: Inflation rises to near two-year high in March
April 1, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.9% month-on-month in March, edging down from February’s 0.6% print.
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Belarus: Growth falls to three-year low in 2019
April 1, 2020
A second GDP estimate released by Belarus’ Statistical Institute (Belstat) confirmed that growth picked up mildly in the fourth quarter of last year (Q4: +1.6% year-on-year; Q3: +1.4% yoy).
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Ukraine: Industrial output contracts at a slower rate in February
March 23, 2020
Industrial production fell 1.5% over the same month last year in February, after a 5.1% drop in January and marking the fifth consecutive month of contraction in industrial sector output.
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Ukraine: Growth falls to near four-year low in Q4 2019
March 20, 2020
GDP growth fell to 1.5% year-on-year (yoy) in the fourth quarter of last year (Q3: +4.1% yoy), marking the weakest expansion since Q1 2016, according to a preliminary estimate by Ukraine’s Statistical Institute.
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