Russia

CIS Countries Economic Forecast

CIS Countries Economic Outlook

Regional growth is forecast to wane this year after rebounding in 2023. The fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war—international sanctions, diminished trade, high interest rates, labor shortages, drained investment flows and elevated inflation—will cap growth in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Further deterioration in the geopolitical backdrop is the main downside risk.

CIS Countries Inflation

Regional inflation remained stable at 7.1% in January. The result largely reflected steady inflation in Russia. In contrast, price pressures eased in most other regional economies, with only Belarus and Moldova registering higher inflation. The outlook remains volatile, with geopolitics, monetary policies, energy prices and currency movements key factors to watch.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2022.

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.7 -4.8 9.2 - -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 3.0 -5.3 7.7 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 2.9 -2.0 5.2 - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.9 6.0 5.1 - -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.2 -3.9 -0.4 -2.7 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 18.7 25.4 22.0 24.1 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 5.0 4.0 7.5 14.1 -
CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) 7.38 5.27 8.80 9.60 11.07
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) 334 405 396 413 6,034
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.2 1.2 4.7 9.4 -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 604 488 712 835 -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 448 410 514 500 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 40.2 44.7 37.8 29.6 -
International Reserves (USD bn) 663 721 759 714 -
GDP per capita (USD) 7,715 6,930 8,457 9,963 -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.5 -2.7 5.4 -2.4 -

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