Economic Snapshot for the CIS Countries
April 8, 2020
Economic activity worsened drastically in March
The outlook worsened drastically in March, as the Covid-19 pandemic is seen dampening both domestic and external demand, and pushing the regional economy into recession in 2020. The Russian economy is set to be the hardest hit, amid crashing oil prices and widespread lockdowns. Dwindling remittances from Russia are likely to hurt the region’s smaller economies in turn.
CIS Countries Monetary & Financial Sector News
Regional inflation ticked down to a three-year low of 3.0% in February (January: 3.2%), marking the ninth consecutive month of easing. This was mostly driven by another moderation in Russia, where inflation dipped to a 20-month low, and Ukraine, where it dived to the lowest reading since February 2014. Inflation rose in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, however.
Regional central banks adopted a variety of policy responses to combat the increasingly severe fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic. Authorities in Armenia , Kazakhstan, Moldova and Ukraine cut their key policy rates over the past month in efforts to buttress economic activity. In contrast, central banks in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Russia stayed put, the latter mostly in order to stabilize the collapsing ruble.
The majority of the regional currencies plunged dramatically against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks as a rapidly worsening economic backdrop amid the Covid-19 pandemic fueled fears of a global recession and sent investors fleeing from emerging market currencies. The Russian ruble was particularly hard hit due to its exposure to collapsing global oil prices.
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CIS Countries Economic News
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Russia: GDP growth slows in Q1
May 19, 2020
According to a preliminary estimate released by Rosstat on 19 May, GDP grew 1.6% in annual terms in Q1 2020, decelerating from Q4 2019’s 2.1% expansion.
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Belarus: Industrial output drops at sharpest pace since November 2015 in April
May 18, 2020
Industrial production nosedived 7.1% year-on-year in April (March: -1.5% year-on-year).
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Belarus: Central Bank cuts refinancing rate to fresh record low in May
May 13, 2020
At its 13 May meeting, the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) trimmed the refinancing rate by 75 basis points to an all-time low of 8.00%.
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Russia: Trade surplus shrinks on plummeting exports in February
May 8, 2020
Merchandise exports dived 19.1% year-on-year and totaled USD 28.1 in February (January: -2.6% year-on-year).
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Ukraine: Inflation falls to over six-year low in April
May 8, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.8% month-on-month in April, matching March’s print.
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