CIS Countries Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for the CIS Countries

January 10, 2023

Economic Growth

The regional economy will shrink again this year as war-related costs and international sanctions continue to hurt the Russian and Belarussian economies. While the rest of the region should experience growth, this will be capped by still-elevated inflation and the downturn in important trading partner Russia. Additional spillover from the war in Ukraine is the key risk.

Inflation Outlook

Regional inflation fell to 13.4% in November from 14.0% in October on easing price pressures in all countries barring Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Regional inflation should decline in 2023 but will be elevated by historical standards. FX swings—particularly in Russia—geopolitics, commodity prices and monetary policy trends are key factors to watch.

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