Economic Snapshot for the CIS Countries
February 12, 2020
Economic activity in CIS Countries is set to propel regional growth in 2020
Regional growth in is seen strengthening this year, chiefly thanks to higher fiscal stimulus and continued monetary policy easing in Russia which should shore up domestic demand in the regional giant. Activity should also quicken in Azerbaijan and Belarus, and remain robust in Kazakhstan and Ukraine. A volatile external environment remains a major risk to the outlook.
CIS Countries Monetary & Financial Sector News
Regional inflation fell to a 17-month low of 3.7% in December (November: 4.1%), mostly driven by swiftly retreating inflationary pressures in Russia, where inflation dropped to a 13-month low, and Ukraine, where it slowed to the lowest level since March 2014. The dDisinflationary trend likely continued in January, with inflation in Russia falling for the tenth 10th consecutive month running.
Russia’s Central Bank chopped the key policy rate to an over six-year low in February amid frail growth and falling inflation. In a similar fashion, policymakers in Azerbaijan a Ukraine trimmed key interest rates as price pressures continued to retreat. Meanwhile, central banks in Georgia and Kazakhstan stayed put at the outset of the year.
The region’s major currencies weakened slightly against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks. Plummeting global oil prices and coronavirus fears weighed on the Russian ruble while Ukraine’s hryvnia retreated fell slightly after rising to a near three-year highs at the end of 2019. That said, the Kazak tenge continued to strengthen against the U.S. dollar at the outset of 2020.
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CIS Countries Economic News
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Belarus: Industrial production slumps at sharpest rate in over four years in January
February 18, 2020
Industrial production fell 5.8% on an annual basis in January, swinging from the previous month’s 4.3% expansion and marking the sharpest contraction since November 2015 amid a broad-based downturn.
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Russia: Trade surplus shrinks again in December amid falling exports and rising imports
February 18, 2020
Merchandise exports totaled USD 39.6 billion in December 2019, representing a 3.0% year-on-year contraction.
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Russia: Industrial production growth loses pace in January
February 17, 2020
Industrial output rose 1.1% year-on-year in January, slowing from December’s 1.7% increase.
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Kazakhstan: Industrial sector loses steam at the outset of 2020
February 14, 2020
Industrial production growth slowed to 4.1% year-on-year in January, from 6.4% in December.
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Ukraine: Inflation falls to near six-year low in January
February 13, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in January, contrasting December’s 0.2% fall.
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