CIS Countries Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for the CIS Countries

January 12, 2021

Regional GDP should bounce back strongly this year, as economies emerge from the Covid-19-induced slump. Recovering household consumption is set to spearhead the upturn, amid the easing of lockdown measures as the vaccine rollout gains momentum throughout H1 . Expansionary fiscal policies and firmer foreign demand should further support the rebound.

CIS Countries Monetary & Financial Sector News

Regional inflation jumped to a 15-month high of 4.8% in November from 4.4% in October. The acceleration  chiefly reflected rising price pressures in Russia and Ukraine. In contrast, inflation eased in Moldova and Uzbekistan. While preliminary data suggests regional inflation rose further in December, price pressures are seen easing slightly this year.

Central Banks in Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Ukraine all stood pat in their December meetings. Meanwhile, policymakers in Azerbaijan  trimmed the key policy rate again at the end of last year due to weak demand conditions, whereas the Central Bank of Armenia hiked the key policy rate in order to support the deprecating  dram.

Most regional currencies were little changed or weakened against the USD in recent weeks. Notably, the Russian   ruble and Ukrainian hryvnia lost some ground amid signs of a worsening health crisis, while currencies in Belarus and Kazakhstan weakened somewhat amid political instability. Regional currencies are seen strengthening slightly this year.

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