Economic Snapshot for the CIS Countries
January 12, 2021
Regional GDP should bounce back strongly this year, as economies emerge from the Covid-19-induced slump. Recovering household consumption is set to spearhead the upturn, amid the easing of lockdown measures as the vaccine rollout gains momentum throughout H1 . Expansionary fiscal policies and firmer foreign demand should further support the rebound.
CIS Countries Monetary & Financial Sector News
Regional inflation jumped to a 15-month high of 4.8% in November from 4.4% in October. The acceleration chiefly reflected rising price pressures in Russia and Ukraine. In contrast, inflation eased in Moldova and Uzbekistan. While preliminary data suggests regional inflation rose further in December, price pressures are seen easing slightly this year.
Central Banks in Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Ukraine all stood pat in their December meetings. Meanwhile, policymakers in Azerbaijan trimmed the key policy rate again at the end of last year due to weak demand conditions, whereas the Central Bank of Armenia hiked the key policy rate in order to support the deprecating dram.
Most regional currencies were little changed or weakened against the USD in recent weeks. Notably, the Russian ruble and Ukrainian hryvnia lost some ground amid signs of a worsening health crisis, while currencies in Belarus and Kazakhstan weakened somewhat amid political instability. Regional currencies are seen strengthening slightly this year.
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5 years of CIS Countries economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
CIS Countries Economic News
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Belarus: Industrial activity drops at sharpest rate since May in December
January 19, 2021
Industrial output dropped 0.7% in year-on-year terms in December, which was a deterioration from November's 4.3% increase.
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Russia: Consumer confidence plunges in Q4
January 19, 2021
The consumer confidence index, published by the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) on 19 December, slumped to minus 26 points in the fourth quarter, from the third quarter’s minus 22 points.
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Russia: Merchandise exports contract at a more moderate rate in November
January 15, 2021
Merchandise exports dived 16.9% over the same month last year in November, easing from October’s 23.8% year-on-year plunge, but marking the 19th consecutive month of contraction.
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Kazakhstan: Inflation hits highest level since October 2017 in December
January 5, 2021
Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.87% in December over the previous month, coming in below the 0.93% rise logged in November.
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Russia: Inflation hits highest level since May 2019 in December
December 31, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.80% in December over the previous month, picking up from the 0.71% rise recorded in November.
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