Economic Snapshot for the CIS Countries
October 30, 2019
Regional growth is seen picking up next year
Regional growth is seen picking up next year, chiefly on firmer domestic demand in Russia amid fiscal stimulus and persistent monetary policy easing. Accelerating economic activity in Belarus, coupled with upbeat growth momentum in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, should cement the upturn. A volatile external environment remains a major risk to the outlook, however.
CIS Countries Monetary & Financial Sector News
Inflation in CIS Plus fell to a 10-month low of 4.7% in September (August: 5.0%). This was mostly due to a deceleration in Russia, where pressures retreated on weak demand conditions, lower grain prices and a relatively strong ruble. Similarly, inflation also slowed considerably in Belarus and Ukraine, although price pressures intensified in Georgia and Kazakhstan.
In October, Russia’s Central Bank cut the key policy rate for the fourth consecutive time, amid quickly retreating inflationary pressures and soft economic activity. Similarly, policymakers in Azerbaijan and Ukraine softened their monetary policy stance. Going forward, with the exception of Kazakhstan, most of the region’s major central banks appear firmly dovish.
The region’s major currencies remained broadly stable against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks. Particularly, the Russian ruble strengthened on firmer domestic economic activity and robust demand for government bonds; Ukraine’s hryvnia hovered close to September’s four-year high amid optimism over IMF loan talks; and the Belarusian ruble appreciated slightly.
5 years of CIS Countries economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
CIS Countries Economic News
November 15, 2019
GDP growth moderated to 4.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, according to preliminary data released by Ukraine’s Statistical Institute.
November 13, 2019
GDP growth accelerated to 1.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2019, according to a preliminary estimate released by Rosstat on 13 November.
November 11, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.7% month-on-month in October, which matched September’s increase.
Russia: Private sector metrics improve as Services PMI jumps and Manufacturing PMI inches up in October
November 7, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by IHS Markit edged up to 47.2 in October from 46.3 in September, marking the second-worst result since May 2009.
November 6, 2019
In October, consumer prices rose 0.1% over the previous month, contrasting September’s 0.2% month-on-month contraction and marking the first increase in three months.
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