GDP reading: GDP growth ticked up to 3.1% year on year in the second quarter from 3.0% in the first...
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Live Global GDP Growth Forecast
Last updated 06 August 2025
Current 2025 Global GDP Growth Consensus Forecast
2.41
+0.03 pp
30 days ago
The FocusEconomics World GDP Consensus Forecast is based on 3,500 individual projections for GDP growth across 198 countries.
Global GDP Forecast Evolution
The latest FocusEconomics Consensus projects World Real GDP growth at 2.41% in 2025. Over the latest week, panelists hiked the 2025 growth forecast by 0.01 percentage points, reflecting a stronger outlook for China, Ireland, Mexico, Taiwan, and the United States. On the other hand, downward revisions for Argentina, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, and Russia partially offset the upgrade.
Global GDP Forecast Revisions
Over the latest week, Mexico and Saudi Arabia recorded the largest upward revisions to their 2025 real GDP growth among G20 economies, with FocusEconomics panelists raising their projections by 0.07 percentage points for both countries. France followed with an upward revision of 0.01 percentage points. Conversely, Argentina saw the steepest downgrade, with its 2025 growth forecast cut by 0.04 percentage points. Russia and Italy were right behind and experienced downgrades of 0.03 and 0.01 percentage points respectively.
Latest GDP News
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Hong Kong: GDP growth records best result since Q4 2023 in Q2
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Canada: Economy flatlines in May
GDP reading: GDP was flat in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms in May, following April’s 0.1% decrease. On an annual basis,...Read more
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Saudi Arabia: GDP growth improves in the second quarter
GDP reading: According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth improved to 3.9% year on year in the second quarter from...Read more
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Serbia: GDP growth steadies in the second quarter
GDP growth disappoints markets: According to a preliminary reading, annual GDP growth was stable at Q1’s 2.0% in Q2, marking...Read more
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6500
Total Individual Forecasts
368
Participating Institutions
39
Commodities Forecasts
198
Countries Covered
Frequently Asked Questions
The global GDP forecast for 2025 is the latest FocusEconomics Consensus estimate of the real variation (i.e., adjusted for price changes) in the total value of all goods and services produced globally in 2025 compared to the previous year. In other words, it is an estimate of how much the world’s total economic output is expected to grow or shrink in 2025.
The global GDP forecast is updated daily, in order to ensure that the forecast always reflects the latest available data. Data is not updated on weekends and public holidays in Spain.
The global GDP forecast is the weighted average of the GDP growth forecasts for the 198 countries FocusEconomics covers, updated daily. The weighted average is calculated using each country’s nominal GDP in U.S. dollars at market exchange rates—not based on purchasing power parity (PPP) weights, which are typically used by institutions like the IMF and World Bank.
FocusEconomics compiles forecasts from the leading international investment banks, national financial institutions, consulting firms, think tanks, professional forecasting companies, credit rating agencies and public institutions. The global GDP forecast is based on 3,123 projections from 368 institutions.
The depth of the panel—with hundreds of contributing institutions—combined with daily forecast updates makes the global GDP growth projections timely as well as accurate. Moreover, every individual forecast from a contributing institution undergoes rigorous quality control checks from our in-house team of economists and data analysts before being incorporated into the global projection.
Multiple factors influence the global economic outlook. Chief among them are government and central bank policies (tax and spending measures, structural reforms, interest rate changes, etc), geopolitical developments (trade agreements, conflict, etc), the rate of technological change, and natural disasters.
The global GDP forecast for 2025 is notably lower than past years, and looks set to be the worst since 2020, at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. This is a result of global trade tensions and a slowdown in China’s economic growth potential; China had in past years been a significant contributor to global growth.