Latest bank decision: At its 17 June meeting, the Central Bank kept the target range for the federal funds rate...
Federal Funds Target Rate in United States
The US Federal Reserve's policy rates over the last decade saw cycles of hiking and lowering. Post-financial crisis, rates were kept near zero until 2015, when the Fed started gradual hikes as the economy improved. However, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, rates were quickly cut back to near zero in 2020. By 2022, in the face of rising inflation, the Fed initiated a series of rate hikes, marking a significant shift towards tighter monetary policy. The bank then reversed course in 2024, cutting rates as inflation declined.
The federal funds target rate ended 2024 at 4.50%, compared to the end-2023 value of 5.50% and the figure a decade earlier of 0.25%. It averaged 2.02% over the last decade. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
United States Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for United States from 2014 to 2025.
Source: Macrobond.
United States Interest Rate Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Funds Target Rate (%, eop) | 0.25 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 4.50 | 3.75 |
| Secured Overnight Financing Rate (%, eop) | 0.05 | 4.30 | 5.38 | 4.49 | 3.85 |
| 10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 1.52 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 4.58 | 4.12 |
Central Bank keeps rates steady in June
Latest bank decision: At its 17 June meeting, the Central Bank kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, following 75 basis points of rate cuts from August to December last year. The decision was expected by markets.
Inflation uncertainty drives hold: The Fed decided not to continue cutting interest rates given economic activity was strong and inflation has moved further above the 2.0% target in recent months. On the flipside, a rate hike was premature given uncertainty on where oil prices will end up and that inflation is likely to decline later this year.
A hike is possible, though our Consensus is for rates to stay steady: The Fed’s June forecasts suggest the funds rate could be hiked later this year, in contrast to previous projections for monetary easing. Our Consensus is currently for the rate to end 2026 around its current level, though these projections could be revised up in coming weeks in light of the June meeting.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, ING analysts said: “A clear hawkish shift from the Fed sees the committee split down the middle on whether they will hike rates or not this year. Sharp energy price falls are good news though, and we think an extended pause is the most likely outcome.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects American interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 57 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for American interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our American interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of American interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
Latest Global Monetary Policy News
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United States: Central Bank keeps rates steady in June -
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Australia: Central Bank holds rates in June Hold after three straight hikes: At its June meeting, the Central Bank decided to hold the cash rate at 4.35%,... -
Sweden: Riksbank stands pat once again in June Sixth straight hold had been penciled in by markets: On 17 June, the Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at... -
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Euro Area: The ECB hikes for the first time in nearly three years in June Bank hikes, as expected: At its meeting on 10–11 June, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to raise its deposit...