Economic activity records quickest growth since March 2024 in February

GDP reading: GDP rose 0.5% month-on-month in seasonally adjusted terms in February (January: 0.0% mom). The result marked the best reading since March 2024, and was far above market expectations. On a rolling quarterly basis, GDP rose at a faster rate of 0.6% in December last year to February (November last year to January: +0.3% qoq), the best result since the three months up to May 2024.

Drivers: Industry, services and construction all expanded in February, with manufacturing the standout performer thanks to higher IT and pharma output.

Panelist insight: On the latest data, ING’s James Smith said: “The monthly GDP figures are often more noise than signal. We saw something similar this time last year, where just two months drove the bulk of the overall growth in 2024, which doesn't feel particularly realistic. If we’re to take anything away from these latest figures, though, it’s that there’s probably a bit too much gloom surrounding the near-term outlook. Yes, tariffs are a headwind, but […] more as a byproduct of what happens to the US economic outlook overall. Lower demand in the US will, in time, wash up on UK shores. But in the meantime, remember that the UK government is dramatically increasing spending this year, both via day-to-day and capital budgets. For all the talk of spending cuts, departmental spending is increasing by 4% in real terms over the next fiscal year.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects British GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 62 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for British GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our British GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of British GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.