GDP in Switzerland

Switzerland GDP | Economic News & Forecasts

Switzerland - GDP

Economy recovers modestly in Q4 2018

According to data released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) on 28 February, the Swiss economy grew 0.2% in Q4 2018 over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms, rebounding from the revised 0.3% contraction recorded in Q3 (previously reported: -0.2% quarter-on-quarter). In annual terms, GDP expanded 1.4% in Q4, down from the 2.4% expansion logged in Q3 and missing market expectations of 1.7% growth. Q4’s print puts annual GDP growth at 2.5% in 2018, markedly up from 2017’s 1.6% reading.

Q4’s recovery came largely on the back of a surge in manufacturing production and a positive contribution from the external sector. Looking at a breakdown by expenditure, the data paints a more mixed picture, however. Private consumption growth accelerated in the quarter amid a tight labor market, and partly due to higher healthcare spending (Q4: +0.3% qoqsa; Q1: +0.1% qoqsa). Meanwhile, government spending recovered marginally in Q4 (Q4: +0.1% qoqsa; Q3: -0.1% qoqsa). Conversely, fixed investment continued to decline, albeit at a softer pace, falling 0.8% on the back of a sharp drop in equipment investment and a dip in construction investment (Q3: -1.3% qoqsa). Overall, domestic demand flatlined in Q4 (Q3: -0.3% qoqsa).

Looking at the external economy, exports plummeted 3.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 (Q3: +0.2% qoqsa), weighed on by the slowdown in the EU and softer global trade dynamics. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services plunged to a four-and-a-half-year low due in part to sluggish domestic demand (Q4: -7.5% qoqsa; Q3: +3.3% qoqsa). Despite significant weakness in external demand, the sharp decline in imports led to a positive contribution to the headline GDP print.

Although the overall yearly expansion was strong, the economy cooled considerably in the second half of 2018 and momentum is expected to continue to dissipate in 2019. Mounting headwinds from a slowdown in the Euro-area and a more challenging global trade environment in general will likely drag on the highly open economy. Already, the KOF economic barometer, an indicator of growth prospects in the short-term, pointed to below-average growth in January and February.

Commenting on the outlook, Charlotte de Montpellier, an economist at ING noted:

“Growth should continue to slow in 2019. The global growth deceleration will probably weigh on Swiss exports. The numerous risks weighing on the global economy are already affecting confidence at Swiss companies, which should lead to a slowdown in investments in 2019. […] The question now is whether in 2019 Switzerland will be able to maintain a growth rate higher than that of the eurozone. We believe that this will be difficult”.

The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs expects the economy to expand 1.5% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists also expect GDP to expand 1.5% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and project growth of 1.6% in 2020.

Switzerland - GDP Data

2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.9  2.5  1.2  1.4  1.1  

Sample Report

5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Switzerland GDP Chart


Switzerland GDP
Note: Annual variation of gross domestic product (GDP) in %.
Source: State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) and FocusEconomics calculations.

Switzerland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield-0.296.27 %Jan 30
Exchange Rate0.99-0.54 %Jan 30
Stock Market8,966-0.82 %Jan 30

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Economic News

Search form