GDP reading: GDP growth ticked up to 3.1% year on year in the second quarter from 3.0% in the first...
Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia's GDP growth over the last decade partly tracked OPEC decisions on oil output, given the importance of the oil sector to GDP. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp contraction, but recovery was underway by 2022, driven by the lifting of pandemic restrictions and successful economic diversification efforts boosting the non-oil economy. However, tough OPEC oil output cuts caused the economy to return to contraction in 2023 and to remain subdued in 2024, despite a buoyant non-oil sector.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in Saudi Arabia was 1.81%, compared to 4.02% in 2014 and 0.54% in 2023. It averaged 3.05% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Saudi Arabia GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Saudi Arabia from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Saudi Arabia GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.8 | 6.5 | 12.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 767 | 982 | 1,237 | 1,218 | 1,239 |
| GDP (SAR bn) | 2,880 | 3,685 | 4,647 | 4,570 | 4,649 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -13.6 | 28.0 | 26.1 | -1.7 | 1.7 |
| Economic Growth (GDP non-Oil, ann. var. %) | -1.7 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| Economic Growth (GDP Oil, ann. var. %) | -7.4 | 2.0 | 14.5 | -9.0 | -4.4 |
GDP growth improves in the second quarter
GDP reading: According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth improved to 3.9% year on year in the second quarter from 3.4% in the first quarter. The reading was the second-highest since Q1 2023 and exceeded market expectations. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth picked up to 2.1% in Q2 from 1.1% in the previous period's, marking the fastest expansion since Q1 2024.
Drivers: In annual terms, the oil sector grew 3.8% (Q1: -0.5% yoy), the fastest pace since Q4 2022, reflecting OPEC+’s decision to hike Saudi Arabia’s output quota in every single month of Q2. Non-oil private-sector activities also grew strongly, expanding 4.7% (Q1: +4.9% yoy), boosted by the government’s continued diversification drive. That said, government spending growth slowed to 0.6% (Q1: +3.2% yoy), the weakest pace in two years, potentially dented by lower oil prices.
GDP outlook: Our panelists expect GDP growth to broadly trend upward through Q2 2026, reaching the highest level since Q4 2022. OPEC+ is set to have fully unwound Saudi Arabia’s “voluntary” oil production curbs by autumn 2026, having phased them in from late 2023. Thereafter, GDP growth should cool a bit and then settle near the 10-year pre-pandemic average of 3.9% as oil production expands less sharply. Rising global protectionism poses a risk by dampening external demand for oil.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Saudi Arabian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 29 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Saudi Arabian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Saudi Arabian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Saudi Arabian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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