Consumption in Russia
Russia - Consumption
Economy grows at strongest pace this year in Q3
Annual GDP growth rose to a year-to-date high of 1.7% in the third quarter of 2019, according to a second estimate released by Rosstat on 12 December. The print was nearly double the second quarter’s 0.9% expansion and matched the preliminary figure.
A notable upturn in the all-important manufacturing sector (Q3: +2.5% year-on-year; Q2: +0.6% yoy) led the acceleration. Furthermore, activity in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector jumped to 2.6% in Q3, up considerably from Q2’s 0.1% uptick amid a stronger harvest in the quarter. Meanwhile, retail and wholesale trade activities rebounded in the third quarter (Q3: +2.2% yoy; Q2: -0.6% yoy), hinting at stronger consumer demand and healthier private sector conditions.
On a less positive note, dynamics in the mining sector weakened in the third quarter (Q3: +2.0% yoy; Q2: +3.0% yoy). This, coupled with a softer increase in electricity, gas and steam, and air conditioning output (Q3: +2.0% yoy; Q2: +2.3% yoy), curbed the overall acceleration.
Looking ahead, growth is expected to strengthen next year, chiefly thanks to overdue fiscal stimulus and a more accommodative monetary policy environment, which are seen propping up domestic demand. That said, further delays to the government’s infrastructure investment program, uncertainty over U.S. sanctions ahead of 2020 elections, volatile commodity prices and ongoing trade wars remain major downside risks to the outlook.
Russia’s Central Bank sees the economy growing between 1.5% and 2.0% in 2020, and between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2021. Meanwhile, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 1.7% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2021.
Russia - Consumption Data
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||5.2||2.0||-9.4||-1.9||3.3|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||6.38||0.13 %||Nov 21|
|Exchange Rate||64.02||-0.12 %||Nov 21|
|Stock Market||2,943||-1.03 %||Nov 21|
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December 12, 2019
Annual GDP growth rose to a year-to-date high of 1.7% in the third quarter of 2019, according to a second estimate released by Rosstat on 12 December.
December 6, 2019
In November, consumer prices rose 0.3% over the previous month, up slightly from October’s 0.1% month-on-month uptick and marking the first increase in six months.
December 4, 2019
The IHS Markit Russia Services Business Activity Index came in at 55.6 in November, broadly unchanged from October’s one-year high of 55.8.
Russia: Sliding PMI points to sharpest contraction in manufacturing activity in over a decade in November
December 2, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by IHS Markit fell to an over one-decade low of 45.6 in November, from 47.2 in October.
November 22, 2019
Merchandise exports totaled USD 35.0 billion in September, representing a 9.3% contraction from the USD 38.6 billion sum recorded in the same month of 2018.