Russia

Russia Private consumption

Russia Private consumption

Private Consumption in Russia

The Russian economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.1% in private consumption in the decade to 2024, above the 2.1% average for CIS Countries. In 2024, the growth of private consumption was5.4%. For more information on private consumption, visit our dedicated page

Russia Private consumption Chart

Note: This chart displays Private Consumption (annual variation in %) for Russia from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.

Russia Private consumption Data

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -5.9 9.8 -0.6 7.5 5.4

War fatigue pushes economic growth to a two-year low in Q1

War fatigue pushes economic growth to a two-year low in Q1

Second release reveals steeper slowdown:

Second release reveals steeper slowdown: The economy shifted into a lower gear at the outset of 2025, with the mounting strain from prolonged war, sanctions plus sky-high interest rates and inflation pushing annual GDP growth to 1.4% in Q1. The result was below a 1.5% initial estimate and Q4 2024’s 4.5% print, marking one of the weakest expansions in the post-pandemic era, barring contractions in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity contracted 0.6% in Q1, contrasting the previous quarter's 1.1% gain.

The economy shifted into a lower gear at the outset of 2025, with the mounting strain from prolonged war, sanctions plus sky-high interest rates and inflation pushing annual GDP growth to 1.4% in Q1. The result was below a 1.5% initial estimate and Q4 2024’s 4.5% print, marking one of the weakest expansions in the post-pandemic era, barring contractions in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity contracted 0.6% in Q1, contrasting the previous quarter's 1.1% gain.

Sanctions, gas deal termination and weak purchasing power pose strong headwinds:

Sanctions, gas deal termination and weak purchasing power pose strong headwinds: The services and industrial sectors—together over 95% of GDP—were major drags on momentum. The tertiary sector felt the pinch of a sharper decline in real wages, historically elevated interest rates and persistent labor shortages: Domestic trade shrank 0.1% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +4.9% yoy), its first drop in two years. Moreover, public administration rose at a softer pace of 6.8% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +7.8% yoy)—albeit still outpacing the pre-invasion decade average—hinting at cooling wartime spending and investment that had driven sturdy GDP growth in 2023–2024. Meanwhile, momentum in industry ground to a near halt in Q1. Energy output contracted 3.8%, deteriorating from the prior quarter's 0.6% fall, while manufacturing growth more than halved to 4.5% (Q4 2024: +9.5% yoy). Industrial downturn reflected mounting sanctions on hydrocarbons—the country’s top export—plus the expiration of a Russia-Ukraine gas supply contract in January. Still, construction activity increased by 7.3% in Q1 (Q4: +2.9% yoy), cushioning the slowdown. More positively, the agricultural sector returned to growth, expanding 1.1% in the first quarter after the prior quarter’s 8.9% decline; in Q1. The rebound was likely supported by China’s decision to raise duties on Canadian and U.S. agricultural products, stepping up its imports of Russian crops in turn.

The services and industrial sectors—together over 95% of GDP—were major drags on momentum. The tertiary sector felt the pinch of a sharper decline in real wages, historically elevated interest rates and persistent labor shortages: Domestic trade shrank 0.1% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +4.9% yoy), its first drop in two years. Moreover, public administration rose at a softer pace of 6.8% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +7.8% yoy)—albeit still outpacing the pre-invasion decade average—hinting at cooling wartime spending and investment that had driven sturdy GDP growth in 2023–2024. Meanwhile, momentum in industry ground to a near halt in Q1. Energy output contracted 3.8%, deteriorating from the prior quarter's 0.6% fall, while manufacturing growth more than halved to 4.5% (Q4 2024: +9.5% yoy). Industrial downturn reflected mounting sanctions on hydrocarbons—the country’s top export—plus the expiration of a Russia-Ukraine gas supply contract in January. Still, construction activity increased by 7.3% in Q1 (Q4: +2.9% yoy), cushioning the slowdown. More positively, the agricultural sector returned to growth, expanding 1.1% in the first quarter after the prior quarter’s 8.9% decline; in Q1. The rebound was likely supported by China’s decision to raise duties on Canadian and U.S. agricultural products, stepping up its imports of Russian crops in turn.

Economy to lose steam in 2025:

Economy to lose steam in 2025: Our panelists have penciled in another subdued growth print for Q2 and see momentum easing further in H2. Elevated interest rates and inflation, paired with subdued wage growth and labor shortages, should dent household budgets. Moreover, sanctions plus plunging oil prices should hit export revenues and government spending in turn. Meanwhile, easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. could drag on agricultural exports. Overall in 2025, our Consensus is for economic growth to more than halve from 2024, dipping below the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 1.9%. Oil prices, the health of the construction sector plus peace negotiations will be key to track; a peace deal could imply some easing of trade restrictions and labor shortages.

Our panelists have penciled in another subdued growth print for Q2 and see momentum easing further in H2. Elevated interest rates and inflation, paired with subdued wage growth and labor shortages, should dent household budgets. Moreover, sanctions plus plunging oil prices should hit export revenues and government spending in turn. Meanwhile, easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. could drag on agricultural exports. Overall in 2025, our Consensus is for economic growth to more than halve from 2024, dipping below the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 1.9%. Oil prices, the health of the construction sector plus peace negotiations will be key to track; a peace deal could imply some easing of trade restrictions and labor shortages.

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Russian private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 18 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Russian private consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Russian private consumption projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Russian private consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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