GDP in Portugal
Portugal - GDP
Economy picks up slightly in Q1
Detailed national accounts released on 31 May confirmed that the economy grew 0.5% in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted terms in Q1 2019 (Q4 2018: +0.4% quarter-on-quarter). Meanwhile, the economy grew 1.8% in annual terms, after expanding 1.7% year-on-year in the previous quarter.
A marked acceleration in domestic demand (Q1: +2.1% qoq; Q4 2018: +0.8% qoq) powered the quarterly expansion, outweighing weakness in the external sector. Particularly, surging fixed investment led the charge (Q1: +8.3% qoq; Q4: +0.2% qoq), propelled by markedly higher construction investment and a more rapid rise in the purchase of machinery. On the other hand, private consumption growth slowed considerably, from 1.3% to 0.3%; growing pessimism over general economic conditions and personal finances caused consumer confidence to slide in the period, weighing on household spending in turn. The government also tightened its belt, with public spending growth decelerating to 0.4% from 0.7% in the previous quarter, on attempts to strengthen the fiscal account.
Meanwhile, export growth sped up to 2.9% in the quarter (Q4: +1.6% qoq), although remained relatively tepid amid a cooling global economy. Nevertheless, the external sector dragged more severely on growth, deducting 1.7 points from the headline print following the 0.4 percentage-point subtraction in Q4, as imports continued to outpace exports. Import growth climbed to 6.0% in Q1 from 2.3% in the previous quarter, reflecting a significant rise in the purchase of capital goods from overseas.
Despite marginally improving in Q1, economic growth is expected to weaken this year on a slowdown in exports and cooling tourism activity amid increasingly challenging global conditions. While EU structural funds will aid the rollout of several delayed investment projects, domestic demand is also set to lose momentum, with downbeat sentiment among households and businesses capping consumption spending and investment.
The Bank of Portugal projects the economy will grow 1.7% in both 2019 and 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 1.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% in 2020.
Portugal - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||-1.1||0.9||1.8||1.6||2.7|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Portugal GDP Chart
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE).
|Bond Yield||0.56||-1.90 %||Jun 20|
|Exchange Rate||1.13||0.65 %||Jun 20|
|Stock Market||5,097||-0.02 %||Jun 20|
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May 31, 2019
Detailed national accounts released on 31 May confirmed that the economy grew 0.5% in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted terms in Q1 2019 (Q4 2018: +0.4% quarter-on-quarter).
May 30, 2019
The industrial sector showed improvements at the start of the second quarter, with the rate of decline easing notably in April.
May 28, 2019
Consumers became more pessimistic in May, with the consumer confidence index sliding to minus 9.0 points, down from minus 7.3 points in April.
May 15, 2019
The economy gained traction in the first quarter of the year, according to preliminary estimates released by the National Statistical Institute (INE) on 15 May.
April 30, 2019
Portugal’s industrial sector remained in the doldrums at the end of the first quarter, contracting at a much sharper pace in March compared to February.