GDP in Portugal
Portugal - GDP
Economic growth rises marginally in fourth quarter of 2018
Detailed national accounts data, released by the Statistical Institute on 28 February, confirmed that the economy picked up slightly in the final quarter of 2018. Matching the flash estimate, GDP grew 0.4% over the previous quarter in Q4, marginally up from a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q3. Economic growth, however, lost pace in annual terms, with GDP expanding 1.7% in Q4 compared to 2.1% in Q3. Moreover, the economy lost ground last year, with full-year GDP growth declining to 2.1% in 2018 from 2.8% in 2017.
An improvement in the external sector led the slight pick-up in growth in the fourth quarter, countering the deceleration in domestic demand. Exports grew 1.1% in Q4, contrasting a 3.7% contraction in the previous quarter. Imports, meanwhile, accelerated, expanding at a swifter pace than exports (Q4: +1.9% qoq; Q3: -2.0% qoq). Consequently, the external sector deducted from growth, although less sharply than in the previous quarter (Q4: -0.5 percentage points; Q3: -0.7 percentage points).
Meanwhile, a breakdown by expenditure showed that domestic demand decelerated, expanding 0.8% in the fourth quarter following the 1.0% expansion in the third quarter. A contraction in fixed investment, which fell 0.7% in Q4, contrasting a 0.9% expansion in Q3, led the slowdown. Specifically, weaker business confidence—amid fears of a persistent slowdown in the Eurozone—likely caused the decline. The sharp downturn in fixed investment more than offset upturns in private and public consumption. Household consumption accelerated as declining inflationary pressures boosted households’ purchasing power (Q4: +1.2% quarter-on-quarter; Q3: +0.7% qoq). Government spending also rose in the quarter, rising 0.3% in the final quarter following a flat reading in Q3.
Looking ahead, momentum is expected to wane again in 2019. A less dynamic tourism sector and a weaker export performance, amid a more challenging external terrain, are seen dragging on growth.
Portugal GDP Forecast
The Bank of Portugal projects the economy will expand 1.8% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% in 2020.
Portugal - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||-1.1||0.9||1.8||1.6||2.7|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Portugal GDP Chart
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE).
|Bond Yield||1.53||-1.90 %||Jan 30|
|Exchange Rate||1.14||0.65 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||5,119||-0.02 %||Jan 30|
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March 29, 2019
Portugal’s industrial sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month in March amid a wider global slowdown, although the rate of decline eased somewhat from February.
March 28, 2019
According to the National Statistics Institute’s (INE) survey of consumer sentiment released on 28 March, consumer confidence slid for the sixth month running in March, falling to minus 10.7 points, down from minus 9.9 points in February.
March 1, 2019
Portugal’s industrial sector contracted at a sharper pace in January amid a broad-based slowdown in the Eurozone, marking the third consecutive month of decline.
February 28, 2019
Detailed national accounts data, released by the Statistical Institute on 28 February, confirmed that the economy picked up slightly in the final quarter of 2018.
Portugal: Consumer confidence continues to tumble, while economic sentiment sees marginal improvement
February 27, 2019
According to the National Statistics Institute’s (INE) survey of consumer sentiment released on 27 February, consumer confidence deteriorated for the fifth consecutive month in February.