GDP in Portugal
Portugal - GDP
Economic growth loses steam in the third quarter
Detailed national accounts data, released by the Statistical Institute on 30 November, confirmed that the economy decelerated in the third quarter due to a contraction in exports amid a wider cooling in the Eurozone. Matching the flash estimate, GDP grew 0.3% over the previous quarter in Q3, following a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q2.
A breakdown by expenditure shows domestic demand accelerated in the third quarter, growing 1.1% after a 0.6% expansion in the second quarter. Private consumption growth picked up in Q3, rising to 0.7% from 0.1% in Q2, as contained inflationary pressures and strong credit growth boosted purchasing power and encouraged greater private spending. Despite slightly more upbeat business confidence in the quarter, fixed investment growth weakened to 0.9% in Q3, down from 1.7% in Q2, on fears of a continued slowdown in private sector activity in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, public consumption came in flat from the previous quarter in Q3, following a 0.3% rise in Q2, as the government moved towards strengthening fiscal metrics and bring down the public debt burden.
The external sector increasingly dragged on growth in the third quarter compared to Q2, however, as exports contracted amid a weaker global backdrop. Exports fell 3.6% in Q3, contrasting a 2.3% rise in Q2; meanwhile, imports also dropped although less severely than exports (Q3: -1.9% qoq; Q2: +2.3% qoq). Consequently, the external sector deducted 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth in Q3, after a nil contribution to growth in the second quarter.
Economic growth also lost ground in annual terms, edging down to 2.1% from the second-quarter’s 2.4%, owing to a downturn in domestic demand. While the external sector continued to drag on growth in Q3, it was slightly less marked than the previous quarter. Looking ahead to next year, the economy is expected to lose some steam. However, it should continue to grow at a healthy pace, supported by solid domestic demand, greater inflows of foreign investment, a flourishing tourism sector and the ongoing housing boom.
The Bank of Portugal projects the economy will expand 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP growth of 1.9% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.6% in 2020.
Portugal - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||-1.1||0.9||1.8||1.6||2.7|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Portugal GDP Chart
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE).
|Bond Yield||1.59||-1.90 %||Feb 14|
|Exchange Rate||1.13||0.65 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||5,087||-0.02 %||Feb 14|
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January 30, 2019
Portugal’s industrial output fell for the eighth consecutive month in December, although the rate of contraction eased markedly.
Portugal: Consumer confidence dives to nearly two-year low and economic sentiment dips again in January
January 30, 2019
According to the National Statistics Institute’s (INE) survey of consumer sentiment released on 30 January, consumer confidence continued to worsen in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of deterioration.
January 3, 2019
According to the National Statistics Institute’s (INE) survey of consumer sentiment released on 3 January, consumer confidence rose slightly in December but remained in pessimistic territory.
December 28, 2018
Portugal’s industrial output contracted for the seventh consecutive month in November, declining 2.9% over the same month of the previous year.
November 30, 2018
Detailed national accounts data, released by the Statistical Institute on 30 November, confirmed that the economy decelerated in the third quarter due to a contraction in exports amid a wider cooling in the Eurozone.