Retail sales growth gains steam in July

Latest reading: Retail sales expanded 5.0% in year-on-year terms in July, which was above June's 2.2% increase and market expectations of a softer acceleration. Sales of motor vehicles, motorcycles and parts, textiles, clothing and footwear and furniture, radio, TV and household appliances all accelerating. Meanwhile, fuel sales lost steam, while food, beverages and tobacco sales fell at a softer pace than in June. On a monthly basis, retail sales were stable in seasonally adjusted terms in July, which was below June’s 0.7% expansion. Meanwhile, annual average growth of retail sales was unchanged at June's 3.0% in July.

Panelist insight: ING’s Adam Antoniak commented: “The July sales report is consistent with our hypothesis and suggests that at the beginning of 3Q25, households' propensity to spend was solid and private consumption should remain the key driver of GDP growth. In 2025, we still forecast economic growth in Poland […] well above the expansion expected in other CEE economies.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Polish retail projections for the next ten years from a panel of 4 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable retail forecast available for Polish retail.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Polish retail projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Polish retail forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.