Money in Poland
Poland - Money
Central Bank holds its ground in February
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the reference rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% at its 4–5 February monetary policy meeting, as had been widely expected. In addition, the Central Bank held the Lombard rate stable at 2.50%, the deposit rate at 0.50% and the rediscount rate at 1.75%. The Bank has stood pat since ending its easing cycle in March 2015.
The Bank’s decision to stand pat resulted from balancing off rising inflation with softening albeit still-solid growth and the ultra-loose monetary policy stance of the European Central Bank. Headline inflation jumped to 3.4% in December from 2.6% in November—stoked by rising food and fuel prices—landing just below the upper bound of the Central Bank’s target range of 2.5% plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. Meanwhile, growth slowed notably in 2019, weighed by persistent weakness in Germany’s industrial sector.
Looking ahead, the Bank maintained its positive assessment of the country’s economic conditions, although it expects growth to slow compared to previous years. FocusEconomics analysts see the Bank keeping the rate substantially unchanged this year, as it attempts to balance faster inflation with weaker external demand and the ECB’s accommodative monetary stance.
Commenting on the likely direction of monetary policy ahead, Rafal Benecki, chief economist for Poland at ING, and Karol Pogorzelski, Poland economist at ING, noted:
“The MPC’s tolerant approach to further CPI growth or downplaying structural causes of inflation and economic slowdown reinforces our belief that rates will not change at least until the end of 2021.”
The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 3–4 March.
FocusEconomics analysts see the reference rate ending 2020 at 1.53% and 2021 at 1.66%.
Poland - Money Data
|Money (annual variation in %)||8.8||9.6||9.7||4.5||8.8|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Poland Money Chart
Source: National Bank of Poland.
|Bond Yield||2.07||-0.30 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||3.79||-0.53 %||Jan 01|
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February 26, 2020
Manufacturing-sector business confidence lost some ground in February, according to the business tendency indicator released by Statistics Poland.
February 21, 2020
Nominal retail sales rose 5.7% year-on-year in January, down from December’s 7.5% jump.
February 20, 2020
Industrial output rose a timid 1.1% year-on-year in January, following the stronger 3.8% uptick recorded in December, according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
February 14, 2020
Consumer prices surged 0.9% over the previous month in January, following December’s 0.8% jump, according to a flash release by the Poland’s Statistical Institute (GUS).
February 14, 2020
The economy grew 3.1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter (Q3: +3.9% year-on-year), marking the weakest expansion since Q4 2016, according to a preliminary estimate released by the Statistical Institute (GUS) on 14 February.