Money in Poland
Poland - Money
NBP holds rates steady in July
As anticipated by market analysts, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the reference rate unchanged at a record-low 1.50% at its 4–5 July monetary policy meeting. In addition, the Bank held the lombard rate unchanged at 2.50%, the deposit rate at 0.50% and the rediscount rate at 1.75%. With July’s decision, the Bank has now kept the reference rate unchanged for more than two years.
Solid economic activity and moderate inflationary pressures underpinned the Bank’s decision to hold off on hiking rates. GDP growth appears to have remained robust in Q2 as a result of healthy employment growth and higher wages, and comes on the heels of a strong Q1. Moreover, the industrial sector appears to be contributing to a resilient domestic economy. Despite positive leading indicators, however, inflation remains subdued and core inflation—while increasing gradually—remains low. Given the Bank’s view that solid domestic activity should only contribute moderately to inflationary pressures in the coming months, a rate hike was necessarily unwarranted this month.
In the absence of clear forward guidance, the Bank’s 2.0% inflation target supports a dovish stance going forward as the probability that consumer prices will overshoot the projection in the medium term is severely limited. Although healthy activity in the domestic sector is expected to put some upward pressure on rates this year, the direction of global demand is more likely to dictate a hike in the reference rate in the near term.
The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 5–6 September.
Against this backdrop, all of our panelists expect the reference rate to end 2017 at the current level, with the Consensus at 1.50%. For 2018, the panel sees the rate ending the year at 1.89%.
Poland - Money Data
|Money (annual variation in %)||4.2||6.7||8.8||9.6||9.7|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Poland Money Chart
Source: National Bank of Poland.
|Bond Yield||3.37||1.72 %||Sep 21|
|Exchange Rate||3.58||-0.45 %||Sep 21|
|Stock Market||64,209||-0.83 %||Sep 21|
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September 1, 2017
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched up from 52.3 in July to 52.5 in August, according to IHS Markit.
August 31, 2017
Poland’s economy slowed down slightly in Q2, according to a second estimate released by the Statistical Institute on 31 August.
August 24, 2017
Retail sales in July rose 7.1% over the same month in 2016, gaining momentum from June’s 6.1% rise.
August 24, 2017
In August, the manufacturing sector business climate index was flat at 7.4 points, according to the Business Tendency Survey released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS-BTS).
August 18, 2017
Industrial production grew 6.2% in July from the same month last year, which was a solid acceleration from June’s 4.5% growth.