GDP in Peru
Peru - GDP (billions of U.S. Dollars)
GDP growth decelerates notably in Q3
Economic growth decelerated considerably in the third quarter, owing to weaker domestic demand. Annual GDP growth in the quarter fell to 2.3%, which was the slowest pace of growth since Q1 2017 and significantly down from the second quarter’s 5.5% year-on-year expansion.
Fixed investment growth braked hard (Q3: +0.8% year-on-year; Q2: +8.4 yoy), weighed down by a sizable downturn in public investment and a considerable slowdown in business investment. Private investment, meanwhile, cooled due to a worsening performance of the manufacturing sector and reduced extraction of oil, gas and minerals. Less upbeat business confidence also likely took its toll. Moreover, public investment swung from a strong expansion in Q2 to a marked contraction, dragged down by declining spending on infrastructure from both the central government and from state-owned enterprises.
Private consumption was more resilient but nevertheless lost steam, increasing 3.3% year-on-year following Q2’s 4.5% expansion. Household spending was underpinned by healthy credit growth, rising wages and growing employment although a slight pick-up in inflation and softer consumer confidence restrained the scope of the expansion. Meanwhile, government consumption swung from a 0.4% increase in Q2 to a 1.8% year-on-year contraction in Q3, due to more constrained spending from the central government.
On the external front, although the sector’s contribution to growth improved from the previous quarter, it nevertheless remained negative. Exports dipped 0.6% in year-on-year terms in Q3, contrasting Q2’s 4.2% rise. Notable increases were recorded in exports of zinc and copper, while significant declines were recorded in foreign sales of gold and gasoline. Reflecting cooling demand for consumption and capital goods, imports increased a meagre 0.7% in Q3, well below the 6.6% expansion logged in Q2.
Economic growth is expected to regain steam in the coming quarters, underpinned by a recovery in infrastructure spending. Consumer spending should be fueled by employment growth, relatively low inflationary pressures and rising wages, while fixed investment will benefit from higher infrastructure expenditure and business spending. Moreover, public finances will remain in good health, providing the government fiscal room for maneuver if required.
Peru GDP Forecast
Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report expect GDP to expand 3.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2020, the panel sees the economy growing 3.8%.
Peru - GDP (USD bn) Data
|GDP (USD bn)||203||203||191||195||216|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||5.43||-0.60 %||Oct 15|
|Exchange Rate||3.33||-0.06 %||Jan 16|
|Stock Market||19,582||-0.23 %||Jan 16|
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January 15, 2019
Economic activity jumped 5.3% year-on-year in November, accelerating from October’s 4.2% increase and marking the strongest increase in six months.
January 11, 2019
Peru’s trade balance recorded a USD 586 million surplus in November, swinging into positive territory from October’s revised USD 74 million deficit (previously reported: USD 155 million deficit) and slightly lower than the USD 646 million surplus recorded in the same month of last year.
January 11, 2019
At its monetary policy meeting on 10 January, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) kept the policy interest rate unchanged at an eight-year low of 2.75%, matching market expectations.
January 11, 2019
The business confidence indicator rose to 58.0 in December from November’s 55.5, and thus moved further above the 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism. A broad-based improvement in sub-indexes drove the increase in business sentiment.
January 10, 2019
The consumer confidence indicator published by GfK jumped from 94 in November to 99 in December, marking the best result since October 2017.