Consumption in Peru
Peru - Consumption
Growth hits multi-year high in Q2 on low base effect
According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth accelerated to 41.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, from 4.5% in the first quarter. That said, Q2’s reading was flattered by an extremely low base effect.
The upturn reflected improvements in private consumption, public spending, fixed investment and exports. Private consumption growth sped up to 28.3% year-on-year in Q2 from 2.0% in Q1. Public spending grew at the fastest pace in over a decade, expanding 30.2% (Q1: +9.3% yoy). Fixed investment growth accelerated to 174.1% in Q2, from 34.8% in the previous quarter.
On the external front, exports of goods and services bounced back, growing 48.8% in Q2 (Q1: -2.8% yoy). In addition, growth in imports of goods and services sped up to 44.1% in Q2 (Q1: +3.1% yoy), marking the best reading since Q4 1991. As a result, the external sector was balanced in Q2, neither contributing to nor subtracting from overall growth, improving from the 1.5 percentage-point subtraction in the prior quarter.
On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity dropped 0.1% in Q2, following the previous period's 0.3% contraction.
Commenting on Q2’s reading as well as the outlook for growth, Alberto Ramos, analyst at Goldman Sachs, said:
“Political uncertainty leading up to the 6 June presidential run-off, as well as the increased number of Covid-19 infections and fatalities during April and May, restrained the recovery in Q2. The high growth carry-over and the expected acceleration of economic activity in H2 2021, supported by a favorable external backdrop and improvement on the domestic healthcare situation, should lead to strong growth in 2021.”
FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to grow 9.4% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.4% in 2022.
Peru - Consumption Data
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||4.9||3.0||2.3||3.3||2.8|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||0.0||-0.60 %||Nov 08|
|Exchange Rate||3.31||-0.06 %||Jan 01|
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September 9, 2021
At its 9 September meeting, the Central Bank of Peru raised its key policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.00%.
September 6, 2021
Merchandise exports rose 33.3% in annual terms in July, slowing considerably from July’s meteoric 74.8%.
September 2, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.98% over the previous month in August, a smaller increase than the 1.01% increase logged in July.
September 2, 2021
Business confidence plummeted to 34.0 in August from 42.9 in July, marking the worst result since June 2020.
August 23, 2021
According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth accelerated to 41.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, from 4.5% in the first quarter.