Netherlands Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn)

After contracting in quarter-on-quarter terms in Q3 2022, the economy bounced back in Q4. Growth in private consumption and exports accelerated, while fixed investment and public spending rebounded. In Q1 2023, our panelists expect qoq activity to contract slightly. Despite inflation declining in January due to the government’s energy price cap, consumer confidence remained in pessimistic territory in January–February, boding ill for private spending. That said, wage growth accelerated in January as the minimum wage was hiked 10%, boding well for private spending ahead. In other news, as part of a deal with the U.S. and Japan struck in January, the Dutch government will impose new restrictions on the export of microchip technology to China. China is the third-largest market for Dutch company ASML, whose technology plays a key role in the mass production of semiconductors.