Consumption in Italy
Italy - Consumption
GDP growth loses momentum in Q3
Growth cooled in the third quarter, with GDP increasing 0.5% quarter on quarter, confirming the preliminary estimate and coming in below the second quarter’s 1.1% expansion. A negative contribution from the external sector was behind the deceleration.
Exports of goods and services increased 0.1% in the third quarter, which was below the second quarter’s 2.1% expansion, as weakness in the industrial sector—amid soaring production costs and global headwinds—restrained foreign sales. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services growth rose to 4.2% in Q3 (Q2: +2.1%), underpinned by robust domestic demand. Overall, the external sector subtracted 1.3 percentage points from growth, swinging from the 0.1 percentage point contribution in Q2.
On the domestic front, household spending grew 2.5% in Q3, matching the 2.5% expansion recorded in Q2, supported by a substantial increase in purchases of durable goods more than offsetting declining sales of non-durable goods. Meanwhile, fixed investment rose 0.8% in Q3, down from Q2’s 1.5% increase, as residential and non-residential buildings investment contracted, more than offsetting higher investment in machinery and equipment. Lastly, public spending dropped 0.2% (Q2: -1.2%).
On an annual basis, economic growth moderated to 2.6% in Q3, compared to the previous period’s 5.0% growth.
The economy will weaken markedly next year. Depleted savings, tighter financial conditions and still-elevated inflation should hit consumer spending. Moreover, a challenging external backdrop will weigh on exports and investments. Pro-market reforms from the newly-formed government could sustain growth and improve the business climate, however, posing an upside risk. That said, weak fiscal metrics and Russian gas cuts to the EU pose downside risks to the outlook.
FocusEconomics panelists project activity to be flat in in 2023, which is unchanged from the previous month’s projection, and 1.2% in 2024.
Italy - Consumption Data
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||1.9||1.2||1.5||0.9||0.4|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||1.31||-0.40 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||1.12||0.65 %||Dec 31|
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December 5, 2022
Harmonized inflation came in at 12.5% in November, which was down from October’s 12.6% but exceeded market expectations.
December 2, 2022
Growth cooled in the third quarter, with GDP increasing 0.5% quarter on quarter, confirming the preliminary estimate and coming in below the second quarter’s 1.1% expansion.
December 1, 2022
The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 48.4 in November from October's 46.5.
November 25, 2022
Business confidence came in at 104.7 in November, up from October's 106.4.
November 25, 2022
Consumer confidence jumped to 98.1 in November from October's 90.1.