GDP in Israel
Israel - GDP
Revised Q2 data shows economy expanded at a slower pace than previously estimated
A second release confirmed that the Israeli economy shifted into a higher gear in the second quarter, albeit at a more moderate pace that initially estimated. The economy expanded 2.4% in the second quarter over the prior quarter at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) (previously reported: +2.7% quarter-on-quarter SAAR), which is still up significantly from the 0.6% SAAR quarter-on-quarter increase in the first quarter.
The revised data shows that private consumption was unchanged at the previously reported 6.5% SAAR increase over the first quarter (Q1: -1.1% qoq SAAR). Private consumption has benefitted from an upswing in the purchases of durable goods and a favorable base effect; in the previous quarter, purchases of durable goods fell significantly following the enactment of an environmental tax on cars. Government consumption, however, was revised down from a preliminary 3.5% SAAR increase to a slightly lower 3.1% SAAR expansion over the first quarter (Q1: +2.3% qoq SAAR). Fixed investment, on the other hand, was revised upwards significantly, from a 5.2% SAAR expansion to a 10.7% SAAR increase (Q1: -4.6% qoq SAAR).
The external sector was subject to a major upward revision. The second estimate showed that imports grew at a SAAR of 3.4% over the first quarter (previously reported: -1.1% qoq SAAR; Q1: -9.8% qoq SAAR), more in line with the solid private consumption data. Exports, however, contracted at a qoq SAAR of 7.0% in Q2 (previously reported: -8.8% qoq SAAR; Q1: +4.1% qoq SAAR).
In annual terms, GDP expanded a revised 3.9% in Q2, which was down slightly from the preliminary 4.0% expansion reported in the first reading, but slightly above the figure reported in the first quarter (Q1: +3.7% year-on-year).
Despite the revisions, the economy is still expected to perform robustly and expand at a moderate pace going forward, supported by domestic demand that is benefitting from a tight labor market. Though consumer confidence remains pessimistic, business confidence remains high, which bodes well for fixed investment growth. A finalized reading will be published on 16 October.
The Central Bank expects GDP to grow 3.4% in 2017 and 3.3% in 2018. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists foresee the economy growing 3.3% in 2017, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2018, the panel projects that the economy will expand 3.5%, which unchanged from last month’s estimate.
Israel - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.4||4.4||3.2||2.6||4.0|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Israel GDP Chart
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics
|Bond Yield||1.89||-1.69 %||Oct 19|
|Exchange Rate||3.50||-0.37 %||Oct 19|
|Stock Market||1,310||-0.91 %||Oct 19|
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September 25, 2017
In August, the Bank of Israel’s (BoI) Composite State of the Economy index rose 0.31% on a monthly basis, slightly above the previous month’s revised 0.22% expansion (previously reported: +0.24% month-on-month).
September 17, 2017
A second release confirmed that the Israeli economy shifted into a higher gear in the second quarter, albeit at a more moderate pace that initially estimated.
September 15, 2017
Consumer prices increased 0.3% in August on a monthly basis, up from the previous month’s 0.1% decrease and matching market expectations.
September 13, 2017
Exports rebounded from two consecutive monthly drops to log annual growth of 12.0% in August, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).
September 11, 2017
The Central Bureau of Statistics’ (CBS) consumer confidence index rose from minus 13.1 points in July to minus 10.6 points in August.