Inflation in Indonesia
Indonesia - Inflation
Inflation remains close to the Central Bank’s target midpoint in September
Consumer prices decreased 0.27% in September over the prior month, contrasting August’s 0.12% increase. September’s figure was driven by lower food prices.
Inflation dipped from 3.5% in August to 3.4% in September, remaining close to the midpoint of Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3.5% plus or minus 1.0 percentage point, while core inflation was stable at 3.3%. Under-control inflation should allow Bank Indonesia to maintain a dovish monetary stance and cut rates further if needed to support growth.
Analysts at Nomura are sanguine about the inflation outlook: “As Indonesia has just entered harvest and rainy seasons, food inflation should soften further. We also do not expect subsidized fuel prices to be raised anytime soon, as crude oil prices have stabilized after the recent jump. Next year, however, the 23% cigarette excise tariff increase poses upside risks to our inflation forecast.”
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project inflation to average 3.2% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020.
Indonesia - Inflation Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||6.4||6.4||6.4||3.5||3.8|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Indonesia Inflation Chart
Source: Statistics Indonesia.
|Bond Yield||7.35||-0.05 %||Sep 04|
|Exchange Rate||14,153||0.05 %||Sep 04|
|Stock Market||6,270||-0.32 %||Sep 04|
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October 15, 2019
According to Statistics Indonesia, the country recorded a trade deficit of USD 0.2 billion in September, contrasting with market expectations of a surplus and driven by a much slower fall in imports.
October 9, 2019
In August, retail sales increased 1.1% year-on-year, below July’s 2.4% rise and falling short of the Central Bank’s initial estimate of 3.7%.
October 1, 2019
Conditions in Indonesia’s manufacturing sector worsened further in September, albeit at a slightly milder pace, with the PMI edging up to 49.1 from 49.0 in August according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by IHS Markit.
October 1, 2019
Consumer prices decreased 0.27% in September over the prior month, contrasting August’s 0.12% increase.
September 19, 2019
At its 18–19 September monetary policy meeting, Bank Indonesia (BI) lowered the seven-day reverse repo rate from 5.50% to 5.25%.