Consumption in Indonesia
Indonesia - Consumption
Economy continues to motor ahead in the fourth quarter
The economy expanded 5.2% in the fourth quarter according to recent data released by Statistics Indonesia, matching Q3’s reading and FocusEconomics panelists’ expectations.
Domestic demand powered the expansion, with private consumption increasing 5.1% (Q3: +5.0% year-on-year), likely supported by mild inflation, elevated consumer confidence and a healthy labor market. Fixed investment grew a robust 6.0% (Q3: +7.0% yoy), while government consumption expanded 4.6% (Q3: +6.3% yoy).
The external sector strengthened in the fourth quarter. Although growth in exports of goods and services slipped from 8.1% in Q3 to 4.3% in Q4, against a backdrop of rising global protectionism and more sluggish momentum in China, import growth fell faster—from 14.0% in Q3 to 7.1% in Q4. This was likely influenced in part by government efforts to stem imports, as well as by lower global oil prices. As a result, the external sector subtracted 0.6 percentage points from growth, compared to the 1.5 percentage-point subtraction in the third quarter.
Looking ahead, private consumption should continue to drive the economy, aided by a lower unemployment rate. Moreover, government consumption could see a boost ahead of elections scheduled for April, and fixed investment should stay healthy, despite potential delays to public investment projects as the government looks to trim the current account deficit. However, rising global trade tensions and slower global growth will likely drag on the external sector.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 5.1% in 2019 and 5.1% again in 2020.
Indonesia - Consumption Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumption (annual variation in %) | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 |
Indonesia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 8.16 | -0.05 % | Jan 30 |
| Exchange Rate | 14,130 | 0.05 % | Jan 30 |
| Stock Market | 6,464 | -0.32 % | Jan 30 |
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Economic News
Indonesia: Indonesia records trade surplus in March despite further decline in exports
April 15, 2019
According to Statistics Indonesia, the country recorded a trade surplus of USD 0.5 billion in March, contrasting market expectations of a deficit but down from the USD 1.1 billion surplus registered in the same month of the prior year.
Indonesia: Incumbent Joko Widodo favorite to retain the presidency, signaling policy continuity
April 10, 2019
On 17 April Indonesian voters head to the polls to elect a new president and parliament.
Indonesia: Growth in retail sales picks up in February
April 9, 2019
In February, retail sales grew 9.1% over the same month in the prior year, up from January’s 7.2% figure but slightly below the Bank’s initial estimate of 10.9%.
Indonesia: Inflation dips further in March
April 1, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.11% in March from the previous month, contrasting February’s 0.08% decline.
Indonesia: Manufacturing PMI rises in March
April 1, 2019
Conditions in Indonesia’s manufacturing sector improved in March according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by IHS Markit and Nikkei, with the PMI increasing from 50.1 in February to 51.2.
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