Inflation in India
India - Inflation
Price pressures ease in May
The National Statistical Office of India released only partial consumer price index (CPI) data for May, as it did previously for April, because of logistical issues related to the coronavirus pandemic. Nevertheless, consumer price pressures appeared to ease in May, according to available data, with both food and beverages, and fuel and light becoming cheaper month-on-month.
In terms of CPI inflation, Nomura research analysts Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi created a “truncated CPI” accounting for 63.1% of the original index and measured that CPI inflation slowed to 6.9% in May versus 8.3% in April, reflecting an easing of food price pressures. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target range for CPI inflation is 2.0% to 6.0%.
Unlike for CPI, authorities were able to release complete wholesale price index (WPI) data for May, which showed prices falling 2.2% from March, the previous month for which data is available, after declining 1.5% in February. In annual terms, meanwhile, wholesale prices declined 3.2% in May, contrasting the 0.4% increase in March.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project consumer price inflation to average 3.7% in FY 2020, which ends in March 2021. The forecast is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In FY 2021, the panel projects consumer price inflation to average 4.1%. Meanwhile, our panel sees wholesale inflation averaging 1.5% in FY 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s report, and 3.1% in FY 2021.
India - Inflation Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||4.9||4.5||3.6||3.4||4.8|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
India Inflation Chart
Source: Reserve Bank of India of China and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||6.50||-0.04 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||71.23||-0.09 %||Jan 01|
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July 3, 2020
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by IHS Markit climbed to 37.8 in June from 14.8 in May.
June 15, 2020
Merchandise exports fell 36.5% in year-on-year terms in May, after falling an historic 60.3% in April (the sharpest fall since at least the early 1990s), amounting to USD 19.1 billion.
June 15, 2020
The National Statistical Office of India released only partial consumer price index (CPI) data for May, as it did previously for April, because of logistical issues related to the coronavirus pandemic.
June 12, 2020
Industrial output fell 55.5% in year-on-year terms in April, which was a larger contraction than March's 18.3% decrease.
June 3, 2020
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by IHS Markit inched up to 14.8 in May from 7.2 in April; the reading in April thus continues to mark the lowest point since current records began in December 2005.