Central Bank Base Rate in Hungary
The Central Bank Base Rate (%, eop) ended 2024 at 6.50%, up from the 10.75% end-2024 value and up from the reading of 2.10% a decade earlier. For reference, the average interest rate in Central & Eastern Europe was 5.12% at end-2024. For more information on interest rate, visit our dedicated page.
Hungary Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Hungary from 2024 to 2014.
Source: Macrobond.
Hungary Interest Rate Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Central Bank Base Rate (%, eop) | 0.60 | 2.40 | 13.00 | 10.75 | 6.50 |
3-Month Interbank Rate (%, eop) | 0.75 | 4.21 | 16.18 | 9.96 | 6.50 |
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 2.08 | 4.51 | 8.98 | 5.86 | 6.55 |
Central Bank leaves rates unchanged in July
Another hold, as expected: At its meeting on 22 July, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) decided to leave its base rate at 6.50%, as has been the case since September 2024. The MNB’s decision was in line with market expectations and cemented Hungary as the EU member with the joint-highest interest rates.
Household inflation expectations remain unanchored: The MNB noted that inflation remained above its 2.0–4.0% target range for the seventh consecutive month in June, and expects this trend to continue through the rest of the year due to robust private consumption and strong wage growth. Most importantly, household inflation expectations remained high in June—even as corporate price expectations declined to their lowest level since October 2024—highlighting the need for tight monetary conditions to fully anchor expectations. The MNB also decided to keep its policy rate unchanged because of upside risks to inflation, including elevated price pressures in the services sector, potential upticks in global food prices and the impact of global trade frictions on inflation expectations.
The Consensus remains for rate cuts by year-end: The MNB determined that maintaining tight monetary conditions is “warranted”, showing no change in its forward guidance from the previous meeting. A majority of our panelists see room for monetary policy easing this year, penciling in 25–100 basis points of cuts by December, while a growing minority sees the Bank on hold. Higher-for-longer inflation and a weaker-than-expected forint could delay interest rate cuts. The Bank will reconvene on 26 August.
Panelist insight: János Nagy, analyst at Erste Bank, noted: “Market pricing currently indicates at least one rate cut for the remainder of the year. Our expectation is that, if developed market and regional interest rates progress according to the current forecasts, then we can still see [the] possibility of a rate cut at the end of the year.” On a more hawkish note, ING analysts said: “Our long-standing view is that underlying inflation in Hungary is too high. While the mandatory and voluntary price shield measures are helping in the short term, underlying price dynamics remain an issue from a monetary policy point of view. […] We believe it is safest to assume that the policy rate will remain at 6.50% for the rest of the year. Although we do not rule out the possibility of a deviation from this towards the end of the year, it is unlikely given the inflation risks.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Hungarian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 23 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Hungarian interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Hungarian interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Hungarian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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