Inflation in Germany
Germany - Inflation
Harmonized inflation moderates noticeably in July
German harmonized consumer prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in July, up from the 0.3% rise recorded in June. July’s uptick came on the back of higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, pricier alcoholic beverages and tobacco while housing-related utilities also became more expensive. On the other hand, significantly cheaper clothing and footwear limited the overall price gain.
Harmonized inflation, meanwhile, dropped to 1.1% in July from 1.5% in the prior month, while average harmonized inflation edged down from 1.9% in June to 1.8% in July. Lastly, consumer price inflation rose from 1.6% in June to 1.7% in July and annual average consumer price inflation was stable at June’s 1.7% in July.
Regarding the inflation outlook, Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany, noted that “with negative base effects from oil prices and the cooling economic outlook, German headline inflation will, in our view, continue to fluctuate between 1% and 1.5% in the coming months, adding to the argument for new ECB action in September.”
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect harmonized inflation to average 1.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, our panel sees average inflation at 1.6%. This is largely in line with the Bundesbank projections of June 2019. While the Bundesbank kept its forecast for harmonized inflation in 2019 unchanged at 1.4%, it revised down its inflation expectation for next year to 1.5% from 1.8% in December 2018.
Germany - Inflation Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||1.5||0.9||0.5||0.5||1.5|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Germany Inflation Chart
Source: Federal Statistics Office and FocusEconomics calculations
|Bond Yield||-0.48||0.41 %||Jul 31|
|Exchange Rate||1.11||0.65 %||Jul 31|
|Stock Market||12,189||-0.41 %||Jul 31|
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August 13, 2019
German harmonized consumer prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in July, up from the 0.3% rise recorded in June.
August 9, 2019
German trade data brought no reprieve in June; exports fell 0.1% month-on-month on a calendar- and seasonally-adjusted basis in June, contrasting the upwardly revised 1.3% expansion in May (previously reported: +1.1% month-on-month).
August 7, 2019
Industrial production tanked in June as output fell 1.5% month-on-month in seasonally- and calendar-adjusted terms, contrasting the revised meager 0.1% expansion in May (previously reported: +0.3% month-on-month).
July 30, 2019
Consumer sentiment eased further in August, as the GfK Consumer Climate index inched down to an over two-year low of 9.7 in August from 9.8 in July, while backward-looking data for July highlighted the current dichotomy in the German economy; “it is apparent that the global economic slowdown, trade conflict and Brexit discussions are having an ever increasing impact on consumer confidence”, GfK noted. Economic expectations dropped markedly in July and fell into pessimistic territory for the first time in over three years.
July 25, 2019
Business sentiment among German firms sank to an over six-year low in July with the ifo Business Climate Index dropping to 95.7 from a revised 97.5 in June (previously reported: 97.4).