Economic Growth in France
France's GDP growth over the last decade was modest, reflecting broader European economic trends, despite the Macron government introducing some liberalizing economic reforms. The economy experienced a sharp downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic followed by a swift recovery, but by 2023-2024 had returned to the typically tepid growth rates seen pre-pandemic. The French economy recorded average real GDP growth of 1.1% in the decade to 2022, below the 1.4% average for the Euro Area. In 2022, real GDP growth was 2.5%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
France GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for France from 2024 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
France GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -7.6 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 2,317 | 2,506 | 2,654 | 2,826 | 2,925 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.8 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 |
Economy rebounds in Q1 but remains soft
Inventories flatter GDP reading: According to a preliminary reading, GDP bounced back 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis in the first quarter, contrasting the 0.1% contraction logged in the fourth quarter of last year. That said, this was solely due to higher inventories—perhaps as firms stocked up ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. In contrast, readings for private spending, government spending, fixed investment and exports all deteriorated. Moreover, France’s GDP growth was below market expectations and the Euro area average of 0.4%. On an annual basis, economic growth was stable at Q4’s 0.8% in Q1.
Broad-based weakness: Private consumption stagnated in Q1 (Q4 2024: +0.2% s.a. qoq). Government consumption growth was 0.1% (Q4 2024: +0.4% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, fixed investment slid at a more pronounced pace of 0.2% in Q1, following the 0.1% decrease in the previous quarter. Exports of goods and services contracted 0.7% in Q1, marking the worst result since Q3 2023 (Q4 2024: +0.2% s.a. qoq). In addition, imports of goods and services growth moderated to 0.4% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +0.5% s.a. qoq).
Panelist insight: The economic outlook is downbeat, as ING’s Charlotte de Montpellier commented: “The additional customs duties in the US and their direct and indirect impact will delay the French economy's rebound. We estimate that the direct effect of a permanent 10% import duty in the US on French GDP (via a reduction in exports) will be around -0.1%. Adding to this are the effects of uncertainty, the global economic slowdown and more restrictive fiscal policy, all of which will weigh on French economic activity throughout the year. The cooling in the labour market is likely to limit the recovery in household consumption, and the savings rate is set to remain high. As a result, the French economy is likely to remain close to stagnation for the rest of the year.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects French GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 54 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for French GDP.
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