Euro Area Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn)

The economy continued to expand in quarter-on-quarter terms in Q4, albeit timidly, surprising markets on the upside. Incoming data for Q1 gives room for hope that the economy could dodge a contraction in the current quarter. In January, inflation continued to decline, and economic sentiment improved. Moreover, the composite PMI moved further into expansionary terrain in February, and consumer sentiment hit a one-year high amid falling energy prices. That said, the lagged effects of cumulative interest rate hikes on borrowing activity seem to have started to bite. On the international front, in February, the EU announced a new round of sanctions on Russian exports, while it also proposed loosening controls on state subsidies to counter the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. Meanwhile, the EU carbon price recently exceeded EUR 100, which could hurt businesses and investment.