Domestic Demand in Colombia
Colombia - Domestic Demand
GDP growth beats market expectations in Q2; posts strongest expansion in at least 15 years
Preliminary national accounts data showed the economy gained momentum in the second quarter of 2021. GDP expanded 17.6% in annual terms—the strongest growth rate since at least Q1 2006—accelerating from Q1’s 1.1% increase. While the result was flattered by a low base effect—Q2 2020 marked the sharpest GDP contraction—it significantly overshot market analysts’ expectations of a 14.5% expansion. Moreover, high commodity prices, the easing of some restrictions and favorable interest rates all contributed to the reading. Meanwhile, on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP dropped back to a contraction in the quarter (Q2: -2.4% s.a. qoq; Q1: +2.9% s.a. qoq), suggesting underlying momentum weakened.
Domestically, the annual improvement was broad-based: Fixed investment swung to a marked 32.0% expansion in the second quarter from Q1’s mild 1.7% contraction. Moreover, private consumption growth accelerated to 25.0% in Q2 from 1.4% in the prior quarter, likely bolstered by a decreasing unemployment rate (Q2: 15.0%; Q1: 15.8%). Lastly, government spending growth gained steam, accelerating to 9.9% in Q2 from 4.5% in the first quarter.
On the external front, exports of goods and services bounced back to growth, clocking in at 15.4% in year-on-year terms following the prior quarter’s 10.2% decline. This hinted at recovering foreign demand dynamics as restrictions abroad were lifted, while higher commodity prices further supported exports. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services rebounded robustly, logging a 45.8% annual increase, contrasting Q1’s 2.3% decline and highlighting stronger domestic demand.
Looking ahead, the economy will likely continue to grow in the third quarter, albeit at a more moderate pace. The low base effect will start to fade as GDP contracted at a less pronounced rate in Q3 2020, and the monetary policy stance will likely be tightened soon, with some of our panelists penciling in a rate hike in Q3.
Our panelists project GDP to expand 6.5% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2022, panelists see GDP growing 3.7%.
Colombia - Domestic Demand Data
|Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)||2.4||1.2||1.1||3.4||4.3|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||6.08||0.0 %||Dec 30|
|Exchange Rate||3,287||-0.17 %||Jan 01|
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Colombia: Consumer confidence hits highest reading since January 2020 in October; remains in negative territory
November 8, 2021
The Fedesarrollo consumer confidence came in at minus 1.3 in October, improving from September's minus 3.0.
November 5, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.02% in October over the previous month, cooling from September 0.38% increase and logging the lowest print in four months.
November 2, 2021
Merchandise exports expanded 40.4% year-on-year in September, accelerating markedly from August’s 28.4% growth.
November 2, 2021
The seasonally-adjusted Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)—produced by IHS Markit and Davividenda—fell to 54.0 in October from 55.5 in September, which had marked the second-highest reading on record.
October 29, 2021
At its 29 October meeting, the Board of Directors of Colombia’s Central Bank (BanRep) decided to raise the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.50% from 2.00%.