GDP per capita in Brazil
Brazil - GDP per capita (U.S. Dollars)
Economy grows for the first time since Q1 2014
Recently-released GDP data confirms that the battered Brazilian economy has entered a tentative recovery phase. GDP rose 0.3% annually in Q2, the first positive reading in over three years and a notable contrast to the 0.4% contraction recorded in Q1. The figure exceeded analysts’ projections. Although the result is positive for the Brazilian economy, it remains to be seen whether a strong recovery will take hold as political uncertainty remains high.
The economy’s upturn was driven by a rise in consumer spending. Private consumption grew 0.7% annually, the best result since Q4 2014. Falling inflation is helping underpin real disposable income, while the government’s decision to allow workers to make early withdrawals from the employee severance fund, a scheme in place since 1994 that is known by its acronym “FGTS", also likely boosted the result. Outside of household consumption, the other components of domestic demand remained in freefall. Government spending dropped 2.4% in Q2, a multi-year low, and fixed investment plunged 6.5% (Q1: -3.7% year-on-year). The government continues to grapple with a large fiscal deficit and budget shortfalls, while the still-bleak economic panorama and large debt loads are likely behind the lack of investment.
On the external side, improving demand and stabilizing commodities prices boosted overseas sales. Exports grew at a robust pace of 2.5% annually in Q2 (Q1: +1.9% yoy). Meanwhile, imports dropped 3.3%, reflecting the weakness of the domestic economy and falling investment.
On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.2%, the second consecutive quarter of growth, meaning the economy exited technical recession (Q1: +1.0% quarter-on-quarter).
Although the second-quarter GDP release points to improvements in the Brazilian economy, conditions remain discouraging. The unemployment rate continues to rest in double-digits, and falling investment shows no signs of bottoming out. Moreover, political noise worsened in Q3 as corruption allegations against President Michel Temer were in the spotlight. The turbulence is likely to continue holding back investment activity and prevent a stronger recovery from taking hold, as the trajectory for government reforms has become more uncertain in the wake of Temer’s abysmal approval ratings.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding a meagre 0.4% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2018, the panel sees the economy growing 2.0%.
Brazil - GDP per capita (USD) Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||12,364||12,278||12,106||8,792||8,731|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||9.82||-0.10 %||Oct 13|
|Exchange Rate||3.15||-0.80 %||Oct 13|
|Stock Market||76,990||0.43 %||Oct 13|
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October 11, 2017
Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) dropped 0.5% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in August, which was a deterioration from July’s zero growth.
October 3, 2017
In August, industrial production fell 0.8% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted July’s revised 0.7% increase (previously reported: +0.8% month-on-month).
October 2, 2017
Conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector were broadly unchanged in September.
September 26, 2017
Brazil’s current account balance came in at a deficit of USD 302 million in August, which was a smaller shortfall compared to August 2016’s USD 648 million deficit.
September 14, 2017
In July, economic activity rose 0.4% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic activity (IBC-Br, Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central).