Domestic Demand in Brazil
Brazil - Domestic Demand
Growth slips through last year-end
Fourth-quarter national accounts revealed that Brazil’s two-year-old economic recovery stumbled through last year-end. Economic growth is estimated to have come in at a seasonally-adjusted 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, down from the third quarter’s 0.5% quarter-on-quarter outturn and well below analysts’ expectations.
Domestically, fixed investment fell sharply from a quarter earlier (Q4: -2.5% quarter-on-quarter s.a.; Q3: +5.5% qoq s.a.) amid plunging inventories and higher borrowing costs. Moreover, government spending fell (Q4: -0.3% qoq s.a.; Q3: +0.3% qoq s.a). Household spending, meanwhile, largely held up (Q4: +0.4% qoq s.a.; Q3: +0.5% qoq s.a) in line with the improving labor market and despite election-year political wrangling.
On the external front, growth of exports of goods and services moderated considerably (Q4: +3.6% qoq s.a.; Q3: +6.3% qoq s.a) amid regional tumult and an increasingly challenging economic backdrop. Imports of goods and services, on the other hand, contracted sharply (Q4: -6.6% qoq s.a.; Q3: +9.4% qoq s.a) in line with fewer receipts of machinery and equipment.
On an annual basis, growth slowed to 1.1% from 1.3% a quarter earlier.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see growth at 2.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2020, the panel sees the economy growing 2.5%.
Brazil - Domestic Demand Data
|Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)||3.7||0.3||-6.3||-5.1||0.9|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||8.72||-0.82 %||Mar 20|
|Exchange Rate||3.78||-0.13 %||Mar 20|
|Stock Market||98,041||-0.40 %||Mar 20|
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March 20, 2019
At its 19–20 March meeting, the Central Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (Comité de Política Monetária, COPOM) unanimously decided to hold the benchmark SELIC interest rate at its record low of 6.50%, where it has rested since the Central Bank paused its long and aggressive easing cycle in March 2018.
March 18, 2019
In January, economic activity decreased 0.4% in seasonally-adjusted month-on-month terms, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic activity (IBC-Br, Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central).
March 15, 2019
Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) increased 0.4% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in January, notably contrasting December’s revised 2.1% contraction (previously reported: +2.2% month-on-month).
March 13, 2019
Industrial production contracted in January, falling 0.8% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms.
March 12, 2019
Taking aim at the government’s strained finances, newly-elected President Jair Bolsonaro presented Congress with a comprehensive social-security reform bill on 20 February.