Economic activity surprises markets to the upside: According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth edged up to 4.5% year on...
Economic Growth in United Kingdom
The United Kingdom's GDP growth over the last decade was impacted by Brexit uncertainties and the COVID-19 pandemic. The Brexit referendum in 2016 introduced prolonged economic uncertainty, affecting investment and growth. The pandemic caused a historic contraction in 2020, followed by recovery. However, the UK economy is growing more slowly than in pre-Brexit years, dampened by trade frictions with the EU plus soft economic growth in mainland Europe.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in United Kingdom was 1.10%, compared to 3.19% in 2014 and 0.40% in 2023. It averaged 1.60% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
United Kingdom GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for United Kingdom from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
United Kingdom GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -10.3 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 2,698 | 3,143 | 3,112 | 3,370 | 3,643 |
| GDP (GBP bn) | 2,103 | 2,285 | 2,526 | 2,711 | 2,851 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -5.8 | 8.6 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 5.2 |
Decline in economy softens in May
GDP reading: GDP declined 0.1% month-on-month in seasonally adjusted terms in May (April: -0.3% mom), contrasting market expectations for an expansion. On a rolling quarterly basis, GDP increased 0.5% in March–May, which was below February–April’s 0.7% expansion.
Drivers: Contractions in manufacturing, mining and construction drove the fall in GDP. In contrast, services activity—which accounts for roughly 80% of total output—ticked up in May from April.
Panelist insight: On the latest data, ING’s James Smith said: “In truth, the monthly GDP figures, which showed a 0.1% fall in May’s output, almost certainly exaggerate the volatility in underlying activity. The latest weakness follows a very strong first quarter, which was driven in no small part by tariff frontloading and home sales ahead of a Stamp Duty (tax) change in April. We’ve also seen a pattern over recent years where the first quarter has recorded much stronger growth than the rest of the year, despite the data being adjusted for seasonal trends. This shouldn’t be the case now, and we suspect that seasonal adjustment has become much harder post-Covid and the most recent inflation wave. The Bank of England opted to look through the first quarter strength, commenting instead that activity was probably more or less flat. We suspect it'll reach the same conclusion for the second quarter.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects British GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 62 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for British GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our British GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of British GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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