Yemen Economic Outlook
April 2, 2019The deal aimed at achieving a ceasefire in the port city of Hodeidah, which was reached between the government and the Houthi rebels in December under UN mediation, appears increasingly fragile. At the end of March, opposing sides in Hodeidah traded fire in what was described as the most intense fighting since December. In the same month, the U.S. ambassador to Yemen blamed the Houthis for delaying a pullout of government and Houthi forces from Hodeidah. Meanwhile, in March, southern separatists warned of a new separatist conflict if they were excluded from UN-mediated peace talks between the government and Houthi rebels. The World Bank said on 1 April that if violence can be contained by the middle of 2019, the economy stands to rebound.
Yemen Economic GrowthDespite the increasingly fragile ceasefire in Hodeidah, the economy is expected to grow this year for the first time in six years, primarily on the back of a miserably-low base effect. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 2.9% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.4% in 2020.
Yemen Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,344||1,164||937||761||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||35.8||32.0||26.5||22.2||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||3.6||-10.6||-29.2||-9.8||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-6.9||-7.1||-12.0||-||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||48.2||51.6||70.9||-||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||11.0||8.2||39.4||5.0||20.0|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||15.00||15.00||15.00||15.00||15.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||214.9||215.0||215.2||250.2||250.3|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||215.0||215.0||215.0||241.0||250.3|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-4.3||-4.7||-11.4||-||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-1.5||-1.5||-3.0||-||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-6.2||-9.6||-6.1||-6.9||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.1||2.5||0.5||0.2||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||13.3||12.1||6.6||7.0||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||1.4||-64.6||-81.5||-60.5||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||17.9||-9.1||-45.5||7.1||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||5.3||4.7||2.0||-||-|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||21.1||24.5||27.5||31.9||-|
5 years of Yemen economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||250.1||0.0 %||Apr 22|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Apr 22|
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