Yemen Economic Forecast

Yemen Economic Outlook

May 7, 2019

On 15 April, the UN announced the government and Houthi rebels had agreed on a new plan to withdraw troops from the port city of Hodeidah, although no timetable has yet been provided. This comes after an UN-backed agreement was reached in December to withdraw troops by January, but failed to materialize. It also comes despite continued fighting in Hodeidah and across the country as a whole, which is placing additional strain on an already severely downtrodden economy. In early April, the World Bank said the economy could rebound if violence were contained by the middle of 2019.

Yemen Economic Growth

Although fighting continues to rage in Yemen, the economy is expected to grow this year for the first time in six years on the back of a miserably-low base effect. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 0.5% in 2019, which is down 2.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.9% in 2020.

Yemen Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.727.528.329.130.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,3441,164937761-  
GDP (USD bn)35.832.026.522.2-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.6-10.6-29.2-9.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-7.1-12.0-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)48.251.670.9-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.08.239.45.020.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.0015.0015.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)214.9215.0215.2250.2250.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)215.0215.0215.0241.0250.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.3-4.7-11.4-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.5-1.5-3.0-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.2-9.6-6.1-6.9-  
Exports (USD billion)7.12.50.50.2-  
Imports (USD billion)13.312.16.67.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.4-64.6-81.5-60.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)17.9-9.1-45.57.1-  
International Reserves (USD)5.34.72.0-  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)21.124.527.531.9-  

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Yemen Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate250.20.0 %May 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %May 13

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