Yemen Economic Forecast

Yemen Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

The situation in Yemen is spiraling out of control. On 6 November, Saudi Arabia imposed a blockade in retaliation for a missile fired into Saudi territory by Houthi rebels two days earlier. Although since being partially lifted to allow the delivery of vital humanitarian aid, millions remain dependent on food assistance and on the verge of famine. In addition, the Red Cross recently reported that close to 2.5 million Yemenis lacked access to clean water in crowded urban areas. This risks aggravating the cholera epidemic—the number of suspected cases is now reported to be above 900,000—and spreading other waterborne diseases. The economy has been torn to shreds by the civil war, which has caused agricultural and hydrocarbon production to screech to a halt and fiscal revenues to plummet.

Yemen Economic Growth

The economy should expand next year, although this hinges to a large extent on a favorable evolution of the civil war. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to grow 4.0% in 2018, down 2.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 10.1% in 2019.

Yemen Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)25.926.727.528.329.1
GDP per capita (USD)1,2391,3441,178995-  
GDP (USD bn)32.135.832.328.1-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.0-1.6-9.6-28.1-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.4-8.0-7.1-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)52.955.451.6-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.911.08.239.45.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)18.0015.0015.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)214.4214.9215.0215.2250.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)215.6215.0215.0215.0241.0
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.0-4.3-  -  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.3-1.5-  -  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.5-2.9-3.3-  -  
Exports (USD billion)7.87.87.9-  -  
Imports (USD billion)11.410.811.2-  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.40.40.7-  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)32.9-5.34.1-  -  
International Reserves (USD)6.25.34.7-  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)24.121.124.225.9-  

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Yemen Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate250.30.0 %Dec 06

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