Yemen Economic Forecast

Yemen Economic Outlook

November 26, 2019

The conflict in Yemen showed further signs of subsiding in recent weeks, which, if sustained, could open the door to a recovery for the beleaguered economy. On 5 November, the government and southern separatists signed a Saudi-brokered deal to end their power struggle in the south of the country: The government committed to increasing representation of the separatists in a new cabinet; in exchange, separatist armed forces will be placed under government control. Moreover, the UAE, which is a key backer of the separatists and has provided them with military reinforcements, has withdrawn a large proportion of its troops out of Yemen to facilitate the deal. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths welcomed the news, saying government-separatist engagement was important to achieving peace.

Yemen Economic Growth

The economy is expected to recover next year, partly on expectations of a toning down of the civil war that has blighted Yemen for years. In addition, foreign aid and relief efforts should also support economic activity. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 3.7% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.0% in 2021.

Yemen Economy Data

Population (million)26.727.528.329.130.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,3041,210943853933
GDP (USD bn)34.833.226.724.828.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.6-10.6-30.3-14.8-5.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-4.1-8.7-8.4-4.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)48.248.754.968.076.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.0015.0015.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)215.2215.0215.2250.2250.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)215.0215.0215.0241.0250.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.4-4.5-11.4-9.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.5-1.5-3.0-2.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.2-9.6-6.1-7.1-6.8
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)13.312.
Exports (annual variation in %)1.3-64.6-81.5-67.5177
Imports (annual variation in %)17.9-9.1-45.510.10.0
International Reserves (USD)  
External Debt (% of GDP)21.923.627.428.425.7

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Yemen Facts

Exchange Rate250.40.0 %Nov 21
Stock Market0.70.0 %Oct 29

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