Yemen Economic Forecast

Yemen Economic Outlook

April 2, 2019

The deal aimed at achieving a ceasefire in the port city of Hodeidah, which was reached between the government and the Houthi rebels in December under UN mediation, appears increasingly fragile. At the end of March, opposing sides in Hodeidah traded fire in what was described as the most intense fighting since December. In the same month, the U.S. ambassador to Yemen blamed the Houthis for delaying a pullout of government and Houthi forces from Hodeidah. Meanwhile, in March, southern separatists warned of a new separatist conflict if they were excluded from UN-mediated peace talks between the government and Houthi rebels. The World Bank said on 1 April that if violence can be contained by the middle of 2019, the economy stands to rebound.

Yemen Economic Growth

Despite the increasingly fragile ceasefire in Hodeidah, the economy is expected to grow this year for the first time in six years, primarily on the back of a miserably-low base effect. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 2.9% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.4% in 2020.

Yemen Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.727.528.329.130.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,3441,164937761-  
GDP (USD bn)35.832.026.522.2-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.6-10.6-29.2-9.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-7.1-12.0-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)48.251.670.9-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.08.239.45.020.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.0015.0015.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)214.9215.0215.2250.2250.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)215.0215.0215.0241.0250.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.3-4.7-11.4-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.5-1.5-3.0-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.2-9.6-6.1-6.9-  
Exports (USD billion)7.12.50.50.2-  
Imports (USD billion)13.312.16.67.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.4-64.6-81.5-60.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)17.9-9.1-45.57.1-  
International Reserves (USD)5.34.72.0-  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)21.124.527.531.9-  

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Yemen Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate250.10.0 %Apr 22
Stock Market0.10.0 %Apr 22

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