Yemen Economic Forecast

Yemen Economic Outlook

July 2, 2019

In recent weeks, artillery fire between Iran-aligned Houthi forces and Saudi-backed government troops has reportedly continued in the port city of Hodeidah, which is a critical entry-exit point for merchandise trade and aid. Despite this, however, there are signs of incremental peace progress: Houthi troops unilaterally withdrew from three ports in the Hodeidah province in May as part of an UN-mediated ceasefire agreement, and the UN said on 12 June that they have not returned since. Moreover, it was announced on 18 June that an agreement between the Houthis and the UN had been reached on a mechanism to inspect ships docking in Hodeidah ports, boosting the chances of this progress being maintained. A return to peace across Yemen, however distant, is vital for the downtrodden economy to recover.

Yemen Economic Growth

The economy is expected to eke out an expansion in 2019 for the first time in six years on the back of a miserably-low base effect; however, this is by no means guaranteed given the dire situation. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 0.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.5% in 2020.

Yemen Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.727.528.329.130.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,3041,210943853933
GDP (USD bn)34.833.226.724.828.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.6-10.6-30.3-14.8-5.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-4.1-8.7-8.4-4.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)48.248.754.968.076.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.08.212.0-12.624.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.0015.0015.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)215.2215.0215.2250.2250.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)215.0215.0215.0241.0250.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.4-4.5-11.4-9.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.5-1.5-3.0-2.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.2-9.6-6.1-7.1-6.8
Exports (USD billion)7.12.50.50.20.4
Imports (USD billion)13.312.16.67.27.2
Exports (annual variation in %)1.3-64.6-81.5-67.5177
Imports (annual variation in %)17.9-9.1-45.510.10.0
International Reserves (USD)5.34.72.01.0-  
External Debt (% of GDP)21.923.627.428.425.7

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Yemen Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate250.40.0 %Jul 11
Stock Market0.70.0 %Jul 11

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