Yemen Economic Forecast

Yemen Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

The truce between government forces and Houthi rebels around the port city of Hodeidah, agreed in early December under the guidance of the United Nations, has held in recent weeks but appears to be fraying. In late January, the UN refused calls by Saudi Arabia—a key backer of the government—to declare the ceasefire dead, following reports of violations from both sides. Once again underlining the importance of a return to peace, new data showed the economy contracted for the fourth consecutive year in 2017, groaning under the devastating weight of war and famine. In slightly more positive news, this economic contraction was the weakest recorded since 2014.

Yemen Economic Growth

The economy is expected to return to growth for the first time in six years in 2019, although this is primarily due to a miserably-low base effect. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 3.1% in 2019, which down 1.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in 2020.

Yemen Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.727.528.329.130.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,3441,164937761-  
GDP (USD bn)35.832.026.522.2-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.6-10.6-29.2-9.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-7.1-12.0-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)48.251.670.9-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.08.239.45.020.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.0015.0015.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)214.9215.0215.2250.2250.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)215.0215.0215.0241.0250.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.3-4.7-11.4-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.5-1.5-3.0-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.2-9.6-6.1-6.9-  
Exports (USD billion)7.12.50.50.2-  
Imports (USD billion)13.312.16.67.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.4-64.6-81.5-60.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)17.9-9.1-45.57.1-  
International Reserves (USD)5.34.72.0-  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)21.124.527.531.9-  

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Yemen Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate250.10.0 %Feb 20
Stock Market0.10.0 %Feb 20

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