Yemen Economic Outlook
November 26, 2019The conflict in Yemen showed further signs of subsiding in recent weeks, which, if sustained, could open the door to a recovery for the beleaguered economy. On 5 November, the government and southern separatists signed a Saudi-brokered deal to end their power struggle in the south of the country: The government committed to increasing representation of the separatists in a new cabinet; in exchange, separatist armed forces will be placed under government control. Moreover, the UAE, which is a key backer of the separatists and has provided them with military reinforcements, has withdrawn a large proportion of its troops out of Yemen to facilitate the deal. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths welcomed the news, saying government-separatist engagement was important to achieving peace.
Yemen Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to recover next year, partly on expectations of a toning down of the civil war that has blighted Yemen for years. In addition, foreign aid and relief efforts should also support economic activity. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 3.7% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.0% in 2021.
Yemen Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,304||1,210||943||853||933|
|GDP (USD bn)||34.8||33.2||26.7||24.8||28.0|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||3.6||-10.6||-30.3||-14.8||-5.9|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-6.9||-4.1||-8.7||-8.4||-4.8|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||48.2||48.7||54.9||68.0||76.2|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||11.0||8.2||12.0||-12.6||24.7|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||15.00||15.00||15.00||15.00||15.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||215.2||215.0||215.2||250.2||250.3|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||215.0||215.0||215.0||241.0||250.3|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-4.4||-4.5||-11.4||-9.7||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-1.5||-1.5||-3.0||-2.4||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-6.2||-9.6||-6.1||-7.1||-6.8|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.1||2.5||0.5||0.2||0.4|
|Imports (USD billion)||13.3||12.1||6.6||7.2||7.2|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||1.3||-64.6||-81.5||-67.5||177|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||17.9||-9.1||-45.5||10.1||0.0|
|International Reserves (USD)||5.3||4.7||2.0||1.0||-|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||21.9||23.6||27.4||28.4||25.7|
5 years of Yemen economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||250.4||0.0 %||Nov 21|
|Stock Market||0.7||0.0 %||Oct 29|
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