Yemen Economic Forecast

Yemen Economic Outlook

May 10, 2022

The economy may be improving somewhat after having hit rock bottom last year. The UN’s nationwide two-month truce that started in early April with the holy month of Ramadan has allowed 18 oil tankers access to the Hodeidah port, and two weekly commercial flights can now land in to Sana’a airport. A few days later, the president of the internationally recognized government handed over power to a transitional council which includes figures from a wider range of non-Houthi factions. Additionally, Saudi Arabia and the UAE pledged USD 3 billion to help with the transition. This political shift could pave the ground for talks with the Houthis. Meanwhile, on 16 April the UN released USD 20 million of food aid, but food insecurity is still acute. In other news, a USD 80 million fundraiser will be held on 11 May to help unload the 1.1 million oil barrels held in the oil tanker moored off the Red Sea coast.

Yemen Economic Growth

The economy will remain in a dire state: The currency crisis and the disjointed economic policies in the divided regions continue to weigh on the outlook. Further downside risks include the uncertainty over potential peace talks, as well as a prolonged conflict in Ukraine, which will exacerbate spiraling wheat and other food prices, food insecurity and hunger. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 1.1% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2023.

Yemen Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)28.329.130.030.831.6
GDP per capita (USD)943849806866-  
GDP (USD bn)26.724.724.226.7-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-30.5-14.6-10.0-1.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-10.0-9.2-5.3-6.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)65.579.684.364.8-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)22.021.330.427.614.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.0015.0015.0027.0027.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)215.2250.2250.3250.2250.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)215.0241.0250.3250.2250.2
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.8-3.6-0.2-1.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.6-0.90.0-0.5-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.1-6.5-6.1-7.0-8.9
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)-81.7-15.2121-50.25.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-
International Reserves (USD)2.01.0-  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)27.428.529.826.4-  

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Yemen Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate250.40.0 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.60.0 %Dec 31

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