Yemen Economic Forecast

Yemen Economic Outlook

September 4, 2018

The conflict in Yemen, which according to the United Nations has created the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, continued unabated in recent weeks, piling further pressure on the already-crippled economy. The port city of Hodeidah, which brings most of the food and fuel supplies into the country and is controlled by Iranian-aligned Houthi rebels, remains under siege by the Saudi-backed coalition following debilitating airstrikes on the city throughout August. Meanwhile, the first outbound shipment of oil since the civil war began was exported in recent weeks, sourced from a field in southern Shabwa. The Oil and Minerals Ministry later announced that it is planning to restart other oil fields in the government-held province too, which would help alleviate pressure on the trade balance.

Yemen Economic Growth

This year, the economy is likely to contract further owing to continued heavy conflict. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to contract 1.2% in 2018, which is 0.5 percentage points down from last month’s forecast. They see the economy expanding 7.9% in 2019.

Yemen Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.727.528.329.130.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,3441,164937761-  
GDP (USD bn)35.832.026.522.2-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.6-10.6-29.2-9.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-7.1-12.0-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)48.251.670.9-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.08.239.45.020.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.0015.0015.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)214.9215.0215.2250.2250.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)215.0215.0215.0241.0250.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.3-4.7-11.4-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.5-1.5-3.0-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.2-9.6-6.1-6.9-  
Exports (USD billion)7.12.50.50.2-  
Imports (USD billion)13.312.16.67.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.4-64.6-81.5-60.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)17.9-9.1-45.57.1-  
International Reserves (USD)5.34.72.0-  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)21.124.527.531.9-  

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Yemen Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate250.30.0 %Sep 24
Stock Market0.10.0 %Sep 24

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