Vietnam GDP Q4 2019


Vietnam: Growth slows slightly in Q4 but remains rapid

December 29, 2019

The economy grew 7.0% in the fourth quarter of 2019, down from Q3’s revised 7.5% expansion (previously reported: +7.3% year-on-year). As a result, the economy grew 7.0% in 2019 as a whole, likely the highest reading in ASEAN.

The fourth quarter’s reading was driven by strong growth in manufacturing and services (+10.9% and +8.1% respectively), with the services sector likely benefiting from a surge in visitor arrivals and low unemployment. However, the agricultural sector appeared to remain hampered by the impact of African swine fever on pork production, expanding a mere 1.6% year-on-year.

Looking ahead, growth should remain well above the ASEAN average, supported by buoyant domestic demand, FDI, manufacturing and a blossoming tourism sector. However, the country’s open economy remains vulnerable to a synchronized global slowdown and possible U.S. tariffs.

The government is targeting 6.8% growth in 2020; our panelists, however, are slightly less optimistic and expect GDP to expand 6.6% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. The panel sees growth at 6.5% in 2021.

Author:, Economist

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Vietnam GDP Chart

Vietnam GDP Q4  2019

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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