Uruguay GDP Q4 2017

Uruguay

Uruguay: Growth remains healthy in Q4

March 26, 2018

Economic growth accelerated marginally in the final quarter of 2017, according to the data released by the Central Bank on 23 March. GDP expanded 2.0% over the same period in the previous year in Q4, compared to the a revised 1.9% growth (previously reported: +2.2% year-on-year) growth clocked in Q4. As a result, for the entire year of 2017 the economy grewfull-year growth in 2017 was 2.7%, bringing the Uruguay’s growth streak to 15 years, the longest expansion in the country’s recordedon record history.

Expansion Growth in the fourth quarter came on the back of robust household consumption; private consumption rose 4.6% in Q4 in annual terms, an marked improvement from Q3’s 4.1% (previously reported: +3.8% yoy) print, and the highest reading in four years. In contrast, government consumption deteriorated for the third consecutive quarter, falling 2.3% in the quarter, from a revised 2.1% drop (previously reported: -2.0% yoy) drop year-on-year in the previous quarter. Fixed investment also finished the year on a negative note, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly contraction in annual terms in Q4. The decline in fixed investment stood atwas 6.3% in the quarter, nevertheless a notable improvement from Q3’s 16.4% (previously reported: -10.2% yoy), and Q2’s 28.3% contractions nonetheless.

On the external demand front, export growth moderated slightly in Q4, partly due to a base effect felt in the final quarter of the year. Exports rose 7.0% year-on-year in the quarter, decelerating from Q3’s 9.1% growth (previously reported: +9.3% yoy). The external sector’s rRobust performance of the external sector was fueled by healthy exports of soya beans and automotive vehicles, while services exports expansion waswere driven by a strong tourism sector growth. Meanwhile, imports growth nearly doubled from the previous quarter in Q4, expanding coming in at 6.0% in annual terms in the quarter, compared to Q3’s 3.1%. However, tThe external sector’s net contribution to GDP remained marginally negative overall in the fourth quarter.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy expanded a robust 1.1% in Q4 in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted the 0.6% contractionfollowed a meagre meager 0.3% (previously reported: +0.1%) increase in Q3.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect GDP to grow 3.1% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel also sees economic output expanding 3.1%.


Author:, Economist

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Uruguay GDP Q4 2017

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Uruguay Central Bank (BCU) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.


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