United States: Job gains exceed expectations again in October
November 4, 2022
Total non-farm payrolls increased by 261,000 in October, down from 315,000 in September but beating market expectations. Employment gains were particularly strong in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% in October from 3.5% in September.
All in all, the data shows the labor market remained resilient at the outset of Q4. Looking ahead, the Consensus is for the labor market to lose steam heading into 2023 as the economy slackens amid higher interest rates, with the unemployment rate forecast to move back above 4% next year.
On the outlook, TD Economics’ Thomas Feltmate said:
“Job growth continues to run well in excess of a pace consistent with trend growth in labor supply. This cannot be sustained indefinitely. Even with some reversal in last month's labor force numbers, the participation rate among the core working age (25-54 years old) still sits at its 2019 average. This suggest further gains in labor supply are likely to be more tepid, which should exert a more meaningful drag on employment.”
Author: Oliver Reynolds, Economist