United States Inflation October 2021

United States

United States: Inflation increases to a 31-year high in October

November 11, 2021

Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.94% in October over the previous month, accelerating from the 0.41% rise seen in September. The pick-up was broad-based, with greater price pressures recorded for energy, housing, transportation, and food.

Inflation jumped to 6.2% in October, above September’s 5.4%. Annual average inflation rose to 3.8% in October (September: 3.3%). Lastly, core inflation also increased, coming in at 4.6% in October, up from 4.0% in September.

Commenting on the inflation outlook, Leslie Preston, a senior economist at TD Economics, noted:

“Energy has been a headline grabbing story, and we recently upgraded our energy price forecasts. Higher energy prices are likely to weigh on growth and boost inflation in the coming quarters as they take a bite out of purchasing power. It looks like transitory does not mean short-lived. Stronger inflation pressures will likely lead the Fed to lift interest rates next summer, earlier than in our September forecast.” 

FocusEconomics panelists see inflation averaging 3.2% in 2022, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, our panel expects inflation to average 2.5%.


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United States Inflation September 2021 1

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of seasonally-adjusted consumer price index in %.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.


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