United Kingdom Unemployment April 2019

United Kingdom

United Kingdom: Labor market remains strong in February-April period

June 11, 2019

In the February-April period, the unemployment rate remained at a multi-decade low of 3.8%, while the employment rate was the joint-highest on record. Moreover, nominal earnings growth excluding bonuses picked up to 3.4% from 3.3% in the prior rolling quarter, on stronger public-sector pay growth. These indicators signal that the labor market remains in good health. That said, employment growth ebbed, while the number of salaried workers declined and job vacancies continued to dip, hinting at a possible loss of momentum.

Looking ahead, nominal wage growth should continue to comfortably outpace inflation. In its May Inflation Report, the Bank of England penciled in 3% growth in total pay for 2019. Our panelists see unemployment ticking up slightly from its current level, but staying low by historical standards. These robust labor market dynamics should support private consumption.

Our panelists currently see the unemployment rate averaging 4.1% in 2019 and 4.2% in 2020, while real disposable income is seen increasing 1.9% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. A new Consensus Forecast will be published on 25 June.

Author:, Economist

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United Kingdom Unemployment Chart

United Kingdom Unemployment April 2019

Note: Three-month average of unemployment rate in %.
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS).

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