United Arab Emirates PMI

United Arab Emirates

United Arab Emirates: PMI soars to record high in October

November 5, 2014

The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) jumped from 57.6 in September to 61.2 in October, which represented the highest level on record. As a result of the sharp improvement observed in October, the PMI has moved further above the 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the non-oil producing private sector.

October’s figure mainly reflected that output, new business, purchasing activity and employment expanded at the strongest rate in the survey’s five-year history. Suppliers’ delivery times were the sole category that did not post a record high. HSBC analysts added that, “[t]he pick up in price pressures captured in this month's data is of concern but the dominant story is one of a UAE economy in full growth mode. The performance is all the more impressive given the decline in oil prices over the same period, and the continued downturn in emerging markets elsewhere.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect GDP to expand 4.2% in 2014, which is down 0.1 percentage points over last month’s projection. For 2015, the panel sees the economy increasing 4.2%, which is also down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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United Arab Emirates PMI Chart

UAE PMI October 2014 1

Note: HSBC Non-oil Purchasing Managers’ Index. Readings above 50 indicate an improvement in business conditions while readings below 50 indicate a deterioration.
Source: HSBC and Markit.

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