United Arab Emirates Economic Outlook
January 8, 2019Economic momentum appears to have taken a hit in the last quarter of the year due to nosediving oil prices in the period. Nevertheless, growth in the non-oil sector remained steady in Q4, as reflected by PMI data up to November, which suggests annual non-oil GDP growth in 2018 broadly matched the preceding year. However, the stock market in Dubai posted its worst annual performance since 2008 with a 25% fall, owing to oversupply and falling prices in the critical real-estate market; in contrast, the Abu Dhabi stock index performed robustly. Looking at 2019, Dubai unveiled its annual budget on 1 January, which was broadly stable from 2018’s record expenditures, with a continued focus on infrastructure investment to prepare for Expo 2020. This spending will supplement the largest budget in history which was recently enacted at the federal level.
United Arab Emirates Economic GrowthDespite uncertain prospects in the oil market, the economy appears ready for liftoff this year, propelled by multiple tailwinds. In addition to strong fiscal stimulus, both at the federal and emirate level, and the Expo 2020-related infrastructure push—which should buoy construction and tourism activity—the country should benefit from a surge in FDI inflows thanks to its recent landmark investment reform and business-friendly laws enacted in past months designed to ease the cost of doing business. Nevertheless, a global growth slowdown, which is expected to continue to weigh on oil prices, and increased financial volatility could somewhat cloud this rosy outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to increase 3.1% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2020.
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United Arab Emirates Facts
|Exchange Rate||3.67||0.0 %||Jan 16|
|Stock Market||0.3||0.75 %||Jan 16|
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United Arab Emirates Economic News
December 24, 2018
Consumer prices fell 0.30% in November from the previous month, following October’s 0.48% decline.
December 6, 2018
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 55.8 in November, from 55.0 in October.
November 27, 2018
Consumer prices fell 0.48% in October from the previous month, up from September’s 0.61% decline.
November 23, 2018
Consumer prices fell 0.61% in September from the previous month, contrasting August’s 0.15% rise.
November 5, 2018
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) edged down to 55.0 in October, from 55.3 in September.