United Arab Emirates Economic Outlook
June 4, 2019Although the economy appears to be revving up in the second quarter after a likely subdued first quarter, external headwinds continue to constrain momentum. Chiefly, OPEC+ oil production cuts since January continue to drag on growth and, with the U.S.-China trade war weighing on oil prices, the cuts are likely to be extended past June, which would further dampen growth in the coming quarters. Moreover, a supply overhang continues to undermine the real estate sector. Nevertheless, in April, momentum in the non-oil economy picked up despite weak job creation, while business confidence reached a record high, according to PMI data. Furthermore, the government recently waived fees for many government services and created a permanent residency framework for investors and skilled foreigners, which should support investment and business activity going forward.
United Arab Emirates Economic GrowthGrowth should ramp up this year, supported by a large fiscal stimulus focused on infrastructure investment for Expo 2020, as well as by a swathe of business-friendly reforms to attract foreign investment. Nevertheless, the evolution of OPEC+ output decisions will be key to the outlook, while lower global growth and a fragile real estate sector pose additional risks. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to increase 2.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.
United Arab Emirates Economy Data
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United Arab Emirates Facts
|Exchange Rate||3.67||0.0 %||Jun 13|
|Stock Market||0.2||0.75 %||Jun 13|
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United Arab Emirates Economic News
June 2, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.17% month-on-month in April, contrasting the 0.59% fall recorded in March.
May 5, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.59% month-on-month in March, further declining from the 0.30% fall recorded in February.
May 5, 2019
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 55.7 in March to 57.6 in April, the highest reading since December 2017.
April 9, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.30% month-on-month in February, coming in below the 0.12% decline recorded in January.
April 7, 2019
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 53.4 in February to 55.7 in March.