United Arab Emirates Economic Forecast

United Arab Emirates Economic Outlook

September 3, 2019

Growth was likely strong in the second quarter, as oil production expanded robustly in year-on-year terms—despite ongoing OPEC output cuts—which bodes well for the energy sector. The non-energy sector was also likely solid, as the PMI averaged higher in Q2 compared to Q1. This comes hot on the heels of a healthy first quarter, with increased oil output driving the energy sector and vigorous credit growth powering the private sector. Turning to the third quarter, the tapering of the PMI in July suggests growth will likely lose some steam. On the upside, oil output remained robust in the same month, reflecting maintenance works last year. Meanwhile, in late August, the government decided to halt the construction and financing of Dubai’s Al Maktoum airport project amid a stagnant tourism sector and subdued regional economic growth.

United Arab Emirates Economic Growth

The economy is projected to accelerate this year, driven by robust government spending related to infrastructure projects for Expo 2020, as well as some deregulation in the private sector which should support foreign investment activity. That said, OPEC production cuts, weaker global growth and volatile oil prices pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to increase 2.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.

United Arab Emirates Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.09.39.69.910.1
GDP per capita (USD)43,19143,33537,37536,22037,252
GDP (USD bn)390403358357378
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.14.35.13.10.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-5.710.94.38.8-8.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.60.96.84.3-1.0
Unemployment Rate2.32.11.81.62.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)8.41.9-3.4-2.5-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)15.815.518.720.219.7
Money (annual variation in %)22.87.95.53.34.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.43.13.61.22.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.12.34.11.62.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.001.001.001.001.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.673.673.673.673.67
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.673.673.673.673.67
Current Account (% of GDP)18.313.34.93.77.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)71.253.617.613.227.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)14010876.668.467.2
Exports (USD billion)371343300295314
Imports (USD billion)231235224227246
Exports (annual variation in %)3.2-7.6-12.4-1.86.3
Imports (annual variation in %)5.92.0-4.91.28.7
International Reserves (USD)68.278.493.985.495.4
External Debt (% of GDP)44.348.367.669.972.6

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United Arab Emirates Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate3.670.0 %Sep 04
Stock Market0.10.75 %Sep 04

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