United Arab Emirates Economic Outlook
July 2, 2019Growth appears to have moderated but remained healthy in the first quarter, as OPEC+ production cuts in effect since January dampened oil-sector growth, while non-oil activity picked up after a near-flat reading in Q4, thanks in good part to higher government spending. Turning to the second quarter, the non-oil sector appears to have made some positive strides. The PMI rose notably in April and then again in May, reaching an over four-year high, although payrolls have remained stagnant. Data for Dubai also indicates healthy tourism, as well as a pick-up in construction activity in May due in large part to the ramp-up of Expo 2020 projects. Nevertheless, OPEC+ cuts remained in place in the quarter—limiting the oil sector’s momentum and weighing on growth—and are likely to be extended until year-end at the next OPEC+ meeting ending 2 July.
United Arab Emirates Economic GrowthThe economy should gain impetus this year, pillared by a sizeable fiscal stimulus aimed at infrastructure investment for Expo 2020, as well as business-friendly reforms which should attract foreign investment. Nevertheless, the evolution of OPEC+ output decisions will be key to the outlook, while lower global growth and a fragile real estate sector pose additional risks. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to increase 2.5% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.
United Arab Emirates Economy Data
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United Arab Emirates Facts
|Exchange Rate||3.67||0.0 %||Jul 11|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.75 %||Jul 11|
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United Arab Emirates Economic News
June 10, 2019
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 59.4 in May from 57.6 in April, the highest reading since October 2014.
June 2, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.17% month-on-month in April, contrasting the 0.59% fall recorded in March.
May 5, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.59% month-on-month in March, further declining from the 0.30% fall recorded in February.
May 5, 2019
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 55.7 in March to 57.6 in April, the highest reading since December 2017.
April 9, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.30% month-on-month in February, coming in below the 0.12% decline recorded in January.