Ukraine GDP Q3 2018

Ukraine

Ukraine: Preliminary estimate shows cooling growth in Q3

November 14, 2018

According to preliminary data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on 14 November, the Ukrainian economy lost traction in the third quarter. GDP rose 2.8% in annual terms in Q3, down from 3.8% in Q2 and marking the slowest expansion so far this year.

Although the breakdown by components is not yet available, the slowdown in the third quarter appears to have been driven by a weaker external sector. Growth of merchandise exports decelerated to a two-year low in Q3 amid a slowdown in global trade due to rising protectionism, which seemingly affected Ukraine’s exports of chemicals and metals. On the other hand, domestic demand dynamics seem to have remained strong in Q3 and easing inflationary pressures, strong private credit growth and sustained increase in wages should have boosted household consumption in Q3.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% in the third quarter, down from from the previous quarter’s 0.9% increase.

The Central Bank expects real GDP growth to ease to 2.5% next year, before picking up again to 2.9% in 2020. FocusEconomics panelists are slightly more optimistic and expect GDP to expand 2.9% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.


Author:, Economist

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Ukraine GDP Chart


Ukraine GDP Q3 2018

Note: Year-on-year variation of GDP in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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