Ukraine GDP Q4 2021

Ukraine

Ukraine: GDP growth records best result in over 11 years in Q4 2021 prior to the Russian invasion

March 11, 2022

A second national accounts release confirmed that GDP growth improved to 6.6% year on year in the fourth quarter, from 2.9% in the third quarter. Q4's reading came in higher than the preliminary estimate of a 5.9% expansion and marked the best reading since Q3 2011.

The improvement was marked by a continued growth in domestic demand. Private consumption grew 1.9% year on year (Q3: +8.8% yoy), slowing from the previous quarter, while government consumption increased 1.2% in Q4 (Q3: +2.3% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth slowed slightly to 15.5% in Q4, from the 16.3% growth recorded in the previous quarter.

On the external front, exports of goods and services declined at a more pronounced rate of 9.7% in Q4 (Q3: -8.6% yoy). Conversely, imports of goods and services growth picked up to 18.7% in Q4 (Q3: +13.9% yoy). As such, the external sector subtracted 16.4 percentage points from the overall result, deteriorating from the 11.9 percentage point deduction logged in the previous quarter.

On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth gathered momentum, picking up to 1.9% in Q4 from the previous period's 1.8% expansion and marking the best result since Q3 2020.

However, the data reflected a time period prior to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia on 24 February, which will undoubtedly have had a crippling effect on the economy and darkened prospects for the future.

FocusEconomics Consensus panelists project GDP to contract 8.3% in 2022, which is down 11.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, they expect it to expand 3.5% in 2023.


Author:, Junior Economist

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Ukraine GDP Q4  2021 2

Note: Year-on-year variation of GDP in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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