Ukraine GDP Q1 2021


Ukraine: GDP contracts in annual terms for fifth consecutive quarter in Q1

May 14, 2021

A preliminary release revealed that GDP shrank 2.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021, surprising market analysts to the downside and worsening from Q4’s 0.5% drop. The downturn represented the fifth consecutive quarter of declining output. Although a comprehensive release is not yet available, the steeper contraction in large part likely reflected a slump in activity in the industrial sector.

On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, output fell 1.1% in Q1, contrasting the 0.8% uptick logged in the previous quarter.

Regarding the economic outlook for this year, Andrew Matheny and Tadas Gedminas, analysts at Goldman Sachs, commented:

“Despite a weaker Q1 print, we maintain our more optimistic forward-looking view on growth and expect GDP to rebound as lockdown restrictions are lifted and the global economy recovers, with Ukraine also benefitting significantly from a positive terms of trade shock arising from higher metals and soft commodity prices.”

FocusEconomics Consensus panelists project GDP to expand 4.2% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.9% in 2022.


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Ukraine GDP Chart

Ukraine GDP Q1  2021

Note: Year-on-year variation of GDP in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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