Turkey: Inflation drops in April
Latest reading: Inflation came in at 37.9% in April, which was down from March’s 38.1%. April’s figure marked the lowest inflation rate since December 2021 and broadly aligned with market expectations. Looking at the details of the release, prices for food and hospitality rose at slower rates, outweighing stronger price pressures for housing plus transport.
Annual average inflation fell to 48.7% in April (March: 51.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation fell to 37.1% in April from March’s 37.4%.
Lastly, consumer prices rose 3.00% from the previous month in April, picking up from the 2.46% rise logged in March.
Outlook: Our Consensus is for inflation to soften further in the coming quarters, curbed by past monetary policy tightening and a high base of comparison.
Panelist insight: Analysts at the EIU commented on risks to the outlook:
“Risks to the disinflation process include a premature or excessive loosening of monetary policy, any increase in global oil prices and/or any acceleration in the nominal depreciation of the lira (triggering higher prices for imported items).”