Turkey: Solid industrial production growth momentum persists in January
March 16, 2018
The economy started the year on solid footing, with industrial production recording a double-digit rate of expansion for a second consecutive month in January. Factory output rose 12.0% in calendar-adjusted year-on-year terms, only slightly below December’s 13.7% surge. A solid manufacturing PMI reading for February suggests that output in the largest of industrial categories should have remained healthy in the month.
According to the Statistical Institute, soaring domestic consumer demand buttressed the robust expansion in factory production in January, with both durable and non-durable consumer goods output recording double-digit annual increases in the month. Intermediate goods production also recorded a very solid expansion in January, although the pace was somewhat softer from December’s over six-year figure. Meanwhile, electricity generation growth was slightly faster than in December but soft overall, while capital goods output growth decelerated markedly to single figures in January following seven months of double-digit growth.
On a seasonally- and calendar-adjusted month-on-month basis, industrial production shrank 0.8% in January, contrasting the 0.9% increase recorded in December and marking the softest print in eight months. Nonetheless, healthy year-on-year growth pushed annual average growth in industrial output to 9.5% in January, well above the 8.7% increase recorded in December and the highest print since May 2012. It should be noted that, beginning in January, the indices’ reference year has been updated to 2015 (previous base year: 2010).
Turkey Industrial Production Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to rise 3.8% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. The panel sees industrial output increasing 3.7% in 2019.
Author: David Ampudia, Economist