Turkey: Industrial production growth falls sharply in June
August 16, 2018
Industrial production rose 3.2% in June in calendar-adjusted year-on-year terms, down markedly from May’s revised 6.5% increase (previously reported: +6.4% year-on-year) and marking a continuation of the ebbing momentum observed in the industrial sector since the outset of the year.
June’s slowdown was driven by softer expansions in the manufacturing; and mining and quarrying sectors. In contrast, the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply sector saw a pickup in growth in annual terms. On a seasonally- and calendar-adjusted month-on-month basis, industrial production shrank 2.0%, the worst reading in nearly two years and marking a deterioration from May’s 1.6% contraction.
Annual average growth in industrial output fell from 10.0% in May to 9.7% in June.
Turkey Industrial Production Forecast
In annual terms, industrial production growth is likely to lose steam during the rest of the year. This is partly due to tough year-on-year comparatives, but is also a reflection of tighter financial conditions and weakening domestic demand. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to rise 4.8% in 2018 and 4.1% in 2019.
Author: Oliver Reynolds, Economist