Turkey: Industrial production eases in February, but momentum still strong
April 16, 2018
Industrial production recorded a solid 9.9% expansion in February in calendar-adjusted year-on-year terms, moderating from January’s 12% jump. Factory output remained robust amid strong business confidence and February’s stable PMI print.
According to the Statistical Institute, the slowdown in factory output came on the back of a contraction in annual calendar-adjusted terms in durable consumer goods, following a double-digit expansion in January. Growth in non-durable consumer goods was weaker, but still recorded double-digit growth. Intermediate goods output growth was also softer in February compared to January, but solid nonetheless. Electricity generation growth decelerated in February as well. Meanwhile, capital goods output grew at a rapid clip and returned to double-digit growth following a strong deceleration in January.
On a seasonally- and calendar-adjusted month-on-month basis, industrial production shrank 0.2% in February, moderating slightly from January’s 0.9% contraction. Nonetheless, healthy year-on-year growth pushed up annual average growth in industrial output to 10.0% in February, up from the 9.5% increase recorded in January and the highest print since May 2012.
Turkey Industrial Production Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to rise 4.2% in 2018, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate. The panel sees industrial output increasing 3.7% in 2019.
Author: Lindsey Ice, Economist