Thailand Trade November 2019

Thailand

Thailand: Exports contract sharply in November

December 23, 2019

Thai exports dropped 7.4% year-on-year in November, down from the 4.5% fall recorded in October. The drop in exports was driven by a strong decline in automotive, chemical products, refined fuels, and polymers of ethylene and propylene exports among others—only four of the top 15 export categories recorded growth in the month. Imports, meanwhile, dropped 13.8% year-on-year in November, down from the 7.6% decline in October.

The trade surplus, however, was stable at USD 0.5 billion in November from the prior month, swinging from the USD 0.9 billion shortfall in November 2018. The 12-month moving sum of the trade balance, meanwhile, rose from a USD 8.8 billion surplus in October to USD 10.3 billion in November.

Looking at 2020, export growth should pick up momentum though this partly reflects a low base effect. Likewise, the external sector’s performance will largely depend on developments regarding the Sino-American trade conflict.

FocusEconomics panelists expect exports to expand 1.6% in 2020. The panel sees imports increasing 2.8% in 2020, which would bring the trade surplus to USD 17.6 billion. In 2021, exports and imports are expected to increase 4.0% and 3.3% respectively, with the trade surplus widening to USD 19.9 billion.


Author:, Economist

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Thailand Trade12 November 2019 0

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Bank of Thailand (BoT) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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