Thailand Trade Balance July 2021

Thailand

Thailand: Merchandise exports grow at a more moderate pace in July

August 25, 2021

Merchandise exports rose 20.3% in annual terms in July, following June’s 43.8% jump. July’s result marked the fourth month of double-digit growth and was in part driven by a low base effect. Meanwhile, merchandise imports soared 45.9% over the same month last year in July (June: +53.8% yoy).

As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 0.2 billion surplus in July (June 2021: USD 0.9 billion surplus; July 2020: USD 3.4 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed down, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 13.1 billion surplus in July, compared to the USD 16.3 billion surplus in June.

Looking ahead, as the worldwide recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic continues and vaccination rates accelerate, exports are set to gain momentum on the back of improved foreign demand. That said, the surge in Covid-19 cases through April–September, a relatively slow vaccine rollout and political challenges at home all pose risks to the outlook.

Regarding the external sector, analysts at the EIU commented:

“We forecast that the current-account surplus will narrow in 2021 relative to 2020, to about 3.0% of GDP. This relatively small surplus will stem mainly from the continued weakness of the tourism sector amid ongoing restrictions, as well as a surge of imports bills attributed partly to the rising energy prices. Nevertheless, outbound shipments of merchandise goods will post a healthy recovery, with many of Thailand's major trading partners (such as the US) emerging from the coronavirus shock.”

FocusEconomics panelists project exports to grow 15.6% in 2021 and imports 20.4%, which would bring the trade surplus to USD 37.1 billion. In 2022, exports and imports are expected to increase 6.5% and 6.7% respectively, with the trade surplus at USD 39.0 billion.


Author:, Economist

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Thailand Trade Balance Chart


Thailand Trade12 July 2021

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Bank of Thailand (BoT) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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