Thailand Inflation August 2019

Thailand

Thailand: Inflation falls to seven-month low in August

September 2, 2019

Consumer prices fell 0.19% month-on-month in August, contrasting the 0.06% increase in July. The result reflected lower prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages and transportation and communication.

Inflation ticked down from 1.0% in July to 0.5% in August, representing the lowest print in seven months. Moreover, the print was below the 0.9% that market analysts had expected. Core inflation, lastly, edged up to 0.5% in August from 0.4% in the prior month.

Against this backdrop, Prakash Sakpal, an economist at ING, comments that:

“Besides housing and transport, a sustained Thai baht (THB) appreciation has also weighed on inflation, while global oil prices, often a key source of imported inflation, have also been missing this year. These trends look as if they are here to stay, thanks to Thailand’s strong external payments position and weak global demand weighing on the oil prices.”

Going forward, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelist see inflation picking up slightly but remaining relatively muted. The panel expects inflation to average 1.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, panelists predict average inflation of 1.4%. The Bank of Thailand, meanwhile, foresees inflation averaging 1.0% in both 2019 and 2020.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Thailand Inflation August 2019

Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and FocusEconomics calculations.


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