Taiwan: Merchandise exports accelerate in May
Latest reading: Merchandise exports shot up 38.6% year-on-year in May (April: +29.9% year-on-year). May’s result marked the fastest expansion since July 2010, and was linked to front-loading ahead of possible U.S. tariffs plus strong global demand for AI applications. Meanwhile, merchandise imports climbed 25.0% in annual terms in May (April: +33.0% yoy).
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 12.6 billion surplus in May (April 2025: USD 7.2 billion surplus; May 2024: USD 6.0 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 92.7 billion surplus in May, compared to the USD 86.1 billion surplus in April.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Nomura analysts said:
“Despite the tariff shock, we expect export growth to extend its solid performance on strong demand for AI GPU servers (Blackwell) and rising chip prices, which may offset weak demand for non-tech products. Although we believe the tariff shock could substantially lower export growth, due to a likely payback from frontloading demand, a continued ramp-up in Blackwell production may partly offset the likely negative impact from the tariff-induced growth slowdown in H2.”