Taiwan: Industrial production contracts for second consecutive month in January
February 26, 2019
Industrial output fell 1.9% year-on-year in January, worsening from the revised 1.1% contraction logged in December (previously reported: -1.2% year-on-year). January’s decline was furthermore the worst print registered since April 2016—with the exception of February 2018’s contraction, which was caused entirely by calendar effects due to seasonal holidays.
Output in the manufacturing sector—which represents more than 90% of total industrial production—fell 1.9% in January, down from the 1.2% decline registered in December. In addition, electricity and gas supply also slumped in January after growing in December, while water supply continued to contract at about the same pace as in the previous month.
On a seasonally-adjusted month-on-month basis, industrial output contracted 3.1% in January, following a 0.2% decrease recorded in December. Annual average growth in industrial production meanwhile tumbled from 3.7% for the full-year 2018 to just 2.7% for the 12 months up to January, the worst reading in over two years.
Taiwan Industrial Production Forecast
Analysts participating in the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast expect industrial production to expand 3.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, participants expect industrial output to grow 2.6%.
Author: Joffrey Simonet, Economist