Switzerland: KOF economic barometer signals a weakening economy in February
February 28, 2019
The KOF economic barometer—a leading composite indicator for the Swiss economy forecasting a six-month period—fell to 92.4 points in February from a revised 96.2 points in January (previously reported: 95.0 points). Consequently, the indicator now lies further below the series’ long-run average of 100 points, suggesting the economy will expand at a softer pace in the short-term than its ten-year average rate.
February’s slump can largely be attributed to falling confidence within the manufacturing sector, as firms were decidedly more pessimistic about order books and overall business situation. However, the KOF Swiss Economic Institute noted that deteriorating sentiment crept into other components of the barometer.
The KOF indicator has been on a notable downward trend since the latter half of 2018, in tandem with cooling economic growth, and confirms the economy will face tougher growth prospects this year.
Switzerland GDP Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP growth of 1.5% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel foresees GDP growth of 1.6%.
Author: Lindsey Ice, Economist