Switzerland: KOF economic barometer rises in October
October 30, 2019
The KOF economic barometer—a leading composite indicator for the Swiss economy, which forecasts a six-month period—rose to 94.7 in October from a revised 93.1 in September (previously reported: 93.2). Despite the marginal uptick, the indicator remained below the series’ long-run average of 100 points, suggesting the economy will expand at a weaker rate in the short-term than its 10-year average rate.
The improved reading in October was the result of more favorable dynamics in the banking and insurance sector, as well as accommodation and food services activity. Moreover, declines in external demand and other services eased. On the downside, the manufacturing and construction sectors were hindered by barriers to production and falling employment, while export prospects will remain lackluster in the months ahead.
Amid intensifying global trade tensions and weak momentum in the Euro area, the KOF indicator has remained entrenched below the 100-point threshold so far this year, pointing to weak economic growth towards the end of 2019 and into 2020.
Author: Lindsey Ice, Economist