Switzerland: KOF economic barometer logs back-to-back decline in November
November 30, 2018
The KOF economic barometer—a leading composite indicator for the Swiss economy forecasting a six-month period—fell to 99.1 points in November from a revised 100.2 points in October (previously reported: 100.1 points), primarily due to poorer export prospects. Consequently, the index now lies just below the series’ long-run average of 100 points, suggesting the economy should expand marginally slower than its ten-year average rate in the short-term.
The deterioration in November resulted from a less optimistic outlook for export-oriented sectors, while the banking and insurance sector also lost steam. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector was relatively resilient as firms’ more upbeat assessment of output, competition, the general business situation, inventory, and backlogs of work more than offset firms’ less optimistic perspective of the labor market outlook. Moreover, the construction sector and private consumption are seen supporting the economy moving forward.
Switzerland GDP Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP growth of 1.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel sees GDP growth of 1.6%.
Author: Lindsey Ice, Economist