Sweden: CPIF and CPI inflation fall in January
February 19, 2019
Consumer prices in Sweden fell 1.0% in January, contrasting December’s 0.4% rise, according to data released by Statistics Sweden (SCB). January’s price decline was driven by lower prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages; clothing and footwear; transport; and recreation and culture. A change in weights used to calculate the consumption basket added some further downward pressure to prices.
The CPI with interest rates held constant (CPIF) dropped from 2.2% in December to 2.0% in January, within the Central Bank’s 1.0%–3.0% tolerance band but confounding the Bank’s expectations of a rise to 2.4%. Core CPIF inflation—which excludes volatile energy costs—dipped from 1.5% to 1.4%, while CPI inflation was 1.9% (December: 2.0%).
Sweden Inflation Forecast
Last month, FocusEconomics panelists saw inflation running marginally above 2.0% in the first few quarters of this year, before dipping slightly below 2.0% in H2, partly on a less favorable base effect. Our analysts expected CPI inflation to average 2.0% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020, and CPIF inflation to average 2.1% in 2019 and 2.0% in 2020. A new Consensus Forecast will be published on 26 February.
Author: Oliver Reynolds, Economist